FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Many challenges await Israel in the coming hours and days. All complicated.
Security forces must regain control in the south. After 24 hours some sites were still at risk and there is a specific alert for cells "left behind" due to delayed actions. The cleanup will require time and resources, much more than those that were in charge of the southern sector.
PLEDGES
Women, children, soldiers turned into human shields and hostages for exchange. Shin Bet will have to strain its resources to figure out where they are, as they may have ended up in the hands of three different factions: Hamas, Jihad and the Al Aqsa (Fatah) Brigades. Hamas has long experience in hostage management and has achieved great results by obtaining the release of its members in exchange. The difference, however, lies in the numbers: there are dozens of prisoners. Along with the living are the bodies of the slain Israelis, they too have a price, and Jerusalem in the past did not hesitate to pay him to return the remains. Then there is the effect of propaganda. Prison guards will use the prisoners to exert pressure, perhaps making them read messages with demands and appeals. A prolonged blackmail.
answer
The presence of hostages represents an additional obstacle to a possible occupation of the Gaza Strip. Entering Gaza is an arduous mission. In fact during other crises the army has been very cautious for fear of losses, preferring to rely on targeted attacks against the "cadres" of armed groups. However, many observers believe that the government intends to go further by thinking of a tough battle. For years, under the leadership of Mohammed Deif, Hamas' military leaders have built bunkers and secret fields to launch kamikaze missiles and drones. It is true that the area is narrow, easy to monitor by aircraft, but this advantage disappears if you have to advance with infantry and armor.
ANALYSIS
Intelligence and Defense – along with the government – must understand how the October Surprise was possible. According to unofficial sources, Hamas employed almost a thousand men in a multiple and simultaneous operation. There are those who accuse the excessive use of electronic surveillance, with eavesdropping, controls from above or devices for border protection. Israel has a unit specialized in this type of activity (Unit 8200), but its enemies are not far behind. It is alleged that the Palestinians jammed the systems, possibly even radio communications. Hamas's allies - Hezbollah and Iran - have developed their own tactics in this area. One video showed a camera tower destroyed by drones. In addition to the technology, the Shin Bet - the internal services - and the military have a group of informants in the other camp, eyes and ears, human beings, collaborators, people who live among the guerrillas. The challenge is to get information from them.
Northern front
Will Hezbollah enter the fray opening the northern front? There are different hypotheses. First. They are content with skirmishes and threats, with limited gestures - like the one on Sunday at Sheba Farms - to keep Jerusalem busy without risking escalation. Second. Participates in aggression in solidarity with Palestinian "brothers" and in coordination with Tehran. The third. The movement is an important player in Lebanon, but not the only one, and it should take this into account. He is aware that his direct intervention would cause great damage to the country. He did it once and his leadership repented. However, this tragic new page in the Middle East has taught us how dangerous it is to rely only on past experience. Today the variables are endless. Including that of terrorist attacks in other countries in support of the Hamas war, planned attacks or lone wolf attacks. The killing of two Israeli tourists in Egypt by a guard is an alarming sign. Qatar's role should be followed: it has great influence in the Muslim world, it is a beacon of the Brotherhood, it has allocated millions and millions to give oxygen to Gaza and therefore it has the levers to "move". /"Corriere Della Sera"
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