FLASH
Shkruar nga Fabrizio Dragosei
Is it heading towards a NATO-Russia conflict? Where could the military clash erupt if the situation gets tense? "Corriere Della Sera" has made an analysis that shows which are the countries that may be involved first in the war.
Moscow's accusations against the West are of particular concern to the countries of Eastern Europe: the three Baltic countries, Poland, which borders Lukashenko's Belarus, and Moldova, which has the thorn of Transnistria.
Baltics
It is the hottest area and all of NATO is directly involved in guaranteeing the security of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Sweden will also send its troops to that region. There are ongoing accusations between the three capitals, Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius and Moscow. The Kremlin always remembers that the area was part of the Russian Empire and the USSR (not between 1920 and World War II) and that hundreds of thousands of Russians live there, many born in those states.
Thus, Balts are especially suspicious and aggressive. They declared Russia a terrorist country after the start of the war in Ukraine. And they certainly treat Russians unfriendly (about a third and a quarter of the population in Estonia and Latvia; "only" 170 thousand in Lithuania). Tallinn and Riga established the obligation for everyone to know the national language, with specific exams. In Latvia, of the ten thousand Russians who tried to support him, 60 percent were rejected and now risk deportation.
In Estonia, Russian is being eliminated from schools and all principals must pass the Estonian language exam C1. One of the most difficult languages in the world. The "protection" of Russian citizens, who according to Moscow are "persecuted" in the three republics, could be a justification for intervention. But the strengthening of the NATO presence makes this impossible.
Poland and Suwalki
Enmity with Warsaw is ancient. In recent years, one of the biggest controversies involved the 2010 crash of the presidential plane, which crashed in bad weather while en route to Smolensk, Russia. An investigative commission has continued for years to look for evidence of Moscow's involvement. With the return of Tusk to the government, the commission was disbanded: "The end of the lie. There is no Russian bullet," said Warsaw's Deputy Defense Minister, Tomczyk.
The point of friction between Poland, NATO and Russia may be the Suwalki Corridor that connects the Baltics to Poland, separating Belarus from the Russian province of Kaliningrad. There could be a ground attack.
Yesterday, Lukashenko also spoke about this with the commander of the sector of Northwestern Belarus, General Naumenko. The president asked if in the event of a conflict it would be necessary to "oppose the Baltic republics". “Are you sure you can hold this territory?” he asked. The answer was: "All the actions are planned, the personnel are being prepared, not only in the training grounds, but also where the front can be opened for the officers to know the places".
TRANSDNIESTRA
It is a territory of Moldova bordering Ukraine, inhabited by Russians and de facto independent since 1990. If Moscow were to succeed in occupying the Odesa region, then it would create territorial continuity with Transnistria. Now she can only count on 2,500 men present there as intervention troops. Moldova has blocked exports from the region to Europe since January, and this is seen by Russia as a provocation. But Transnistria's foreign minister said Tuesday that Tiraspol has no plans to "ask Russia to join the Federation." And he added: "We do not threaten anyone and we will make every effort not to get involved in any conflict." / Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Corriere Della Sera"
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