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Trump speaks of chaos in Iran, but after stalled negotiations, a new center of power is forming. As Ayatollah Khamenei has disappeared from the public scene, generals take command…
The next round of negotiations fails, US President Donald Trump extends the ceasefire and blames Tehran. According to him, Iran is “divided” and the leadership “unable to act”. But while the impression of chaos is created in Washington, a different picture is forming in Tehran: not a collapse, but a shadowy power shift, with direct consequences for the war and diplomacy. Below is an explanation of who really holds power in Iran today.
The Invisible Ayatollah
At the center should have been one figure: Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. Yet so far there has been no clear public sign of him. More than 6 weeks after his appointment, he has not appeared in public: no speeches, no interviews, no verified videos. Instead, read messages and statements generated by artificial intelligence circulate. For a system that has relied for decades on the visible authority of a leader, this is a rupture. His father, Ali Khamenei, was constantly present. The son, by contrast, remains in the shadows, perhaps not by his own will.
Reports from inside the regime describe a dramatic situation: Khamenei is said to have been seriously injured in airstrikes, can barely speak, and is being held in isolation for security reasons. Communication, these sources say, is conducted through couriers, while decisions are transmitted indirectly. This raises a fundamental question: if the supreme leader is not visible, is he still leading?
Revolutionary Guards take control
The answer leads to the Revolutionary Guards. The Pasdaran have long ceased to be just a militia. They constitute a state within a state: a military elite, an economic network, and a political factor. Now, according to these developments, they have also become the real center of decision-making.
Their power is distributed among several key figures: Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi directs military strategy, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr heads the National Security Council, and veteran Yahya Rahim Safavi advises the leadership on key issues.
One Iranian source describes the system as a board of directors: Khamenei as the formal chairman, and the generals as the real decision-makers. “The generals are the board members,” a former government adviser told The New York Times. By this logic, the new ayatollah only approves decisions that have been made in advance – or takes them for granted.
Faceless power
This new power structure has concrete consequences. Civilian politicians are losing influence, while the president is mainly concerned with the day-to-day administration of the country. Strategic issues are decided by the military.
A clear example is the issue of the Strait of Hormuz: the government announced its opening, but the Revolutionary Guards canceled the decision shortly afterwards.
The same thing happens in negotiations. According to reports, the generals broke off talks with the US after interpreting Trump's blocking policy as a sign of weakness. Civilian voices demanding continued dialogue failed to prevail.
Why diplomacy fails
This situation poses a problem for the United States. Diplomacy requires clear responsibilities: who negotiates, who makes decisions, and who guarantees the implementation of agreements? In today's Iran, these answers remain unclear.
Negotiators present and defend positions, but domestically these positions are revised or overturned by other centers of power. Decisions can change at any moment, making negotiations unpredictable. This explains why even agreements reached are suddenly called into question.
Trump's assessment
Trump sees this situation as a sign of weakness. For him, Iran is divided and easier to pressure. But many experts assess the opposite: the system appears chaotic, but it is very adaptable. Power has not disappeared; it has been redistributed.
Today, more than ever, it is in the hands of a military network, less inclined to compromise and more difficult to predict.
Iran is not without leadership. It is being led differently: no longer by an all-powerful ayatollah, but by a collective of generals, security structures, and hardline figures.
The main question is not whether the regime is falling apart. The question is whether a new core of power is forming, a shadow military state that runs Iran, while the ayatollah remains a symbolic and invisible figure. /Adapted from Blick /
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