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Ceasefires must be politically reinforced at all times if we want them to remain in effect.
Ceasefires that are announced suddenly tend to be quite fragile. Durable ceasefires usually require a lot of preparation so that everyone on both sides knows what needs to happen and, more importantly, when.
And normally they agree on how this will be monitored so that one party cannot exploit a quick advantage by breaking it unexpectedly.
Without such preparations, and sometimes even with them, ceasefires will tend to be violated, perhaps accidentally, perhaps because one side does not exercise full control over its forces, perhaps as a result of false alarms, or even because a third party, a guerrilla group or a militia, say, chooses that moment to launch an attack of its own.
The important question is whether a ceasefire violation is simply random and unfortunate, or deliberate and systematic, where someone is actively trying to violate it.
However, ceasefires need to be politically reinforced at all times if they are to remain in place. All sides may need to recommit to this at regular intervals, mainly because, as true enemies, they will not trust each other and will remain naturally suspicious of any quibbling and talk from the other side.
Washington has a key role to play
This is where an outside power like the United States plays a critical role. If enemies like Israel and Iran naturally distrust each other and need little incentive to “counterattack” in some way to any provocation, it will take U.S. pressure to get them to implement a ceasefire that may be breaking down.
Appeals for mercy are hardly relevant in this regard. An external arbiter should make the continuation of the ceasefire a matter of great national interest for both sides.
And that often requires as much bullying as persuasion. It may be true that "blessed are the peacemakers," but it certainly helps if their blessings involve a considerable amount of force./ SkyNews
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