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The EU is working to condition Serbia's membership on the implementation of agreements with Kosovo. The conditionality of the membership has to have an effect on the political calculations of President Vučić, according to political analysts.
Among the binding conditions for Serbia to join the European Union, it is expected to include the implementation of the agreements that Serbia has reached so far with Kosovo in the dialogue mediated by the EU. The European Commission and the EU's External Action Service (EEAS) are working on this to change the framework of negotiations in chapter 35 with Serbia for membership. "The work in this direction is continuing in accordance with the request of the member countries", said the spokesperson of the EU, Peter Stano. The request to change the conditions in chapter 35 was made by the EU member states, after Serbia officially through its prime minister, Ana Brnabić, said that "her country would not implement all the agreements that it agreed to with Kosovo".
Kurti: Serbia does not respect the agreement on normalization
The Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, after a government meeting, accused Serbia of not respecting the Agreement for normalization mediated by the European Union. "Article one of the agreement states that the parties, i.e. Kosovo and Serbia, will develop good neighborly relations with each other, based on equal rights. Serbia, however, chooses everything over the development of good relations with us, it actually chooses to attack Kosovo, as it did on September 24, 2023 in Banjska, and then to protect the perpetrators of this act led by Millan Radoicić, he said When you.
The former vice-president of the Serbian List, Millan Radoicic, took responsibility for the attack on the Kosovo Police on September 4 of last year by a group of armed Serbs. Last year, Kosovo and Serbia reached an agreement on the path towards the normalization of relations and the Annex for its implementation, known as the Ohrid agreement. The EU wants to make this "legally binding", although the parties agreed to the agreement, but did not put the signatures.
In October last year, the leaders of Germany, Chancellor Scholz, the President of France Macron, the Prime Minister of Italy Meloni and representatives of the institutions of the European Union, asked the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, to establish the Association of Municipalities with a Serbian majority, while , the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, to de facto recognize Kosovo.
Vučić: We are asked to recognize the independence of Kosovo
Days ago, this was recalled by the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, who said that "Europe is asking Serbia to recognize the independence of Kosovo". "De facto or de jure, this is being demanded. Let's not lie about this. The biggest power, the European Union, is asking for this," Vučić told the media in Serbia.
The Prime Minister of Kosovo Albin Kurti, for his part, said that "Association is not the top priority of normalization, it is the basic agreement, so all my colleagues, not only in Kosovo, I ask them not to remove it from the draft package the statute or the Association as an issue", Kurti said, adding that "out of the 11 articles of the Basic Agreement, at least eight have been violated by Serbia", therefore he requested a response from the European Union. "We demand legal certainty, not only for the implementation of the agreement but also for its respect and non-violation. This is the main reason why we asked for the signing of the agreement", said Kurti.
After Kurti's statement, the reaction of the Director of the Office for Kosovo in the Serbian Government, Petar Petkovic, was immediate, who accused the Prime Minister of Kosovo, as he said, of "violating the agreements in Brussels", especially the one for the Association of Municipalities with Serbian majority. "Kurti cannot even rewrite the agreement signed in Brussels 11 years ago, the implementation of which is guaranteed by the European Union, nor can he write or speak a single word without attacking Belgrade and the Serbs in Kosovo, because this is the only which he knows how to do", said Petkovic.
According to him, Albin Kurti is the "main source" of instability in the Western Balkans.
The British Foreign Minister, David Cameron, requested a change in the western approach towards Serbia, as soon as he returned from a visit he made on (04.01) to Kosovo. Cameron said that "disappointment must be expressed with the behavior of the Government of Serbia, after the events of September in Banjska in Zvečani", where a group of armed Serbs killed a Kosovo policeman. Kosovo authorities blamed Serbia for involvement in the attack, but Belgrade denied this. "I'm aware of how dangerous it was, that's why it was one of the reasons I went to Kosovo," said Cameron. He said that "it is time to change the attitude of the West towards Kosovo and the Western Balkans, warning that Russia is aiming to destabilize this region".
But how do political analysts see the initiative of the EU's External Action Service, which has requested that the Ohrid agreement for the normalization of Kosovo-Serbia relations become an integral part of Chapter 35 for Serbia in the EU membership negotiations. Demush Shasha, from the Epik Institute, told DW that "this condition definitely affects the political calculation of President Vučić, as both in the political sense, but also in the economic sense, it is extremely important that Serbia is perceived as a country, which remains on its course towards EU membership".
"This conditionality will also depend on Vučić's perception of the EU's will for Serbia's admission to the EU. If he notices that the EU, regardless of what Serbia does, will not open its doors in the short term for Serbia's membership, then Vucic's initiative to make compromises against dialogue will fade," said Shasha.
The course of Serbia, the elections in the USA and the war in Ukraine
Shasha also relates the course of Vučić's policy to the election year in the USA, and the dynamics of the war in Ukraine. According to him, "the consequences of these two developments will also be felt in the Balkan region". In a scenario where the next President of the USA can be elected Donald Trump and therefore a scenario where the position of Russia is strengthened in Ukraine, then Vucic will definitely be in a much more consolidated position to renegotiate the position of Serbia and the respective conditions within the dialogue".
The director of the Epik Institute, Demush Shasha, says that "this is also the reason why Vuçiqi is doing everything to maintain the status quo within the dialogue through episodes like 'my right hand hurts' to sign dialogue agreements, or the episode of Banjska. Both of these episodes have been part of the same strategy and the same goal: slowing down the dialogue and buying time while maintaining the status quo in the hope of the arrival of more favorable geopolitical circumstances for Serbia".
Therefore, according to him, the conditionality of Serbia in the framework of chapter 35 will anchor the obligations of the dialogue for the recognition of the elements of Kosovo's citizenship, as the most powerful European leaders have already requested. "Within the formal process of Serbia's membership in the EU, much will also depend on the determination of the EU to join the countries of the region in the EU in a predictable time frame", says Demush Shasha./DW
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