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Turkey has updated its contingency plans to deal with a potential massive refugee crisis in the event of US strikes on Iran, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. Turkish media outlets have picked up on and expanded on the reporting.
According to the information, the plans also include the scenario of Turkish forces entering Iranian territory, in order to prevent the passage of displaced populations towards Turkey. This option, according to the same sources, would only be considered in the event of the creation of a power vacuum in Tehran.
The idea of creating a “buffer zone” on the Iranian side of the border has gained support within the Turkish government. Turkey’s Foreign Ministry briefed lawmakers in a closed-door session on a series of phased response plans. Officials stressed the aim is to avoid a repeat of the “open door” policy followed during the Syrian civil war, which led to the admission of over three million refugees to Turkey.
Reports point out that Turkey has previously used the creation of buffer zones in Syria to support and train armed groups that later took power in some areas of the country.
The preparations come amid reports that Ankara is expecting a possible US-led strike against Iran. According to Turkish officials cited, the aim of such an operation would be to force Tehran to make concessions on its nuclear program. The United States has increased its military presence in the Middle East, while former President Donald Trump has said he is considering limited strikes, setting a March deadline for reaching an agreement.
The main concern for Turkey remains the risk of a new wave of refugees, especially Afghans and Pakistanis currently in Iran. With the country's economy under pressure from high inflation, Turkish authorities estimate that a large new influx would strain public services and the domestic political climate.
The 560-kilometer border between Turkey and Iran is already fortified with concrete walls, barbed wire and watchtowers, as it is considered one of the main corridors of illegal migration.
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