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Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Since Biden was elected president, more than 3.1 million people who have crossed the border illegally have been admitted. A figure even greater than the population of the city of Chicago.
Donald Trump's mother came to the US from Tong (population 500), a remote Scottish village that was once part of Viking territory. His grandfather came from Kallstadt (population 1,200), a village in the Bavaria region of Germany, from where the famous Heinz business family originated.
Even Joe Biden's ancestors came to the US from Ireland and England. In America, all citizens are from somewhere else. Even Native Americans, though they've been here a lot longer than anyone else.
So great is the allure of this country that 160 million adults around the world say they would come here immediately if they could. But that number is far greater than most Americans are willing to admit. This debate is at the heart of the issue that could cost President Biden the election.
In 2016, Trump made the most of the "border chaos" thesis until he received the official nomination from the Republicans and then during his first term as president. At the time, he campaigned on the claim that record numbers of immigrants were entering the US illegally from the Mexican border.
That wasn't so true then, but it is now. In November of last year alone, nearly 250,000 attempts to cross the southern border were registered. Most newcomers seek asylum and will be allowed to live in America in a multi-year wait for their claims to be processed.
Since Biden was elected president, more than 3.1 million people who have crossed the border illegally have been admitted. A figure even greater than the population of the city of Chicago. At least another 1.7 million entered undetected by authorities or overstayed their visas. Republican governors have paid for immigrants to go to Democratic-run states, shifting southern border problems to northern states. Their experience helps explain why voters trust Republicans more, by a 30 percent margin, when they say they will get serious about border security.
However, Biden is not the only one to blame for the current situation. When the US labor market needs workers, the incentive for people to go there illegally will increase. This is the reason why entries increased even during the Trump presidency, until the Covid-19 pandemic arrived that temporarily solved the problem.
When movement became possible again in 2021, there was a major new wave of illegal crossings across the southern border. More than half come from countries beyond Mexico and northern Central America. Venezuelans make up the majority of this group.
But tens of thousands now travel to America from Russia (43,000 per year through September 2023), India (42,000) and China (24,000) and then attempt an illegal crossing. It is often impossible to get them back. If their applications are rejected, China will no longer accept its citizens. However, some of the blame lies with President Biden.
Trump's harsh language about "sending rapists from Mexico to the US" and cruelly separating children from their parents as a deterrent, along with his plan to build a wall between the two countries, radicalized some Democratic policymakers.
They thought public opinion was on their side. In fact voters revolted against Trumpism even while Trump was in office, support for immigration reached a new level. When the new Democratic administration took office, its instinct was to do the opposite of what Mr. Trump had done.
Thus, the work on the construction of the border wall was stopped. Democrats abandoned the brutal policy, which forced asylum seekers to stay south of the border until authorities decided on their applications. And predictably, illegal immigration rose again.
Since the 2022 midterm elections, Biden has quietly endorsed some of Trump's policies. So he has agreed to continue building the wall. Asylum seekers who try to cross undetected are, with few exceptions, automatically rejected. They must apply online before appearing physically. However, Americans are not aware of these efforts, partly because Biden cannot attract attention because that would turn a part of the Democrats against him.
The president's window of opportunity to do one thing while saying something else is running out. Congress is making the passage of a new, very strict immigration bill conditional on continuing to fund the war in Ukraine.
The administration opposes the bargain because support for Ukraine has great economic and strategic significance for America, regardless of the country's immigration policy. But this is a wrong approach. In a system where both parties use the levers at their disposal, Biden should see this as an opportunity.
Some of the Republican demands on immigration are reasonable. Most visa-free immigrants crossing the US southern border cannot roam the desert. They must find a Border Patrol agent and file a formal asylum application.
Then they have to go through what is called a "credible fear" interview. Republicans want to raise the threshold above what counts as "credible fear." And that's a reasonable goal. Under Biden's approach, fear of gang violence counts as a reason to allow them to stay in the US.
But compare that to Spain, a country that rejects this test even though it has a socialist prime minister. After passing the first test, immigrants are usually released from detention centers pending a date when a court will hear their case many years in the future, as these types of courts are overloaded with cases.
The average wait for a session is over 4 years. Appeals can add to the delay. Democrats would like more funding to hire more officers to process the claims, and more judges to speed up the backlog. This is also a reasonable request.
An agreement must be reached here. However, each side does not believe the reasons given by the other. Republicans say they won't agree to give more money to an administration they can't trust to properly enforce immigration laws. Instead, they are trying to blame the situation on the Secretary of Homeland Security.
Democrats scrutinize Republican demands, such as that families entering the U.S. could be detained indefinitely, and conclude that the negotiations were set up to fail, and that they are being used as a weapon against the president. Biden.
Chances are, that both sides will choose the campaign of confrontation of the political rival, instead of agreements. And that should worry Mr. Biden. Reports from the Mexican side of the border indicate that if people believe Trump will win, many more will try to enter the US before he officially takes office early next year.
Insecure borders weaken support for legal immigration and strengthen parties that advocate limiting this phenomenon. Immigration could put Donald Trump back in the White House, where he could pull the US out of the 1951 Refugee Convention, causing it to collapse.
Under these conditions, Biden must expose the bluff of the Republicans, roll up his sleeves, and begin to fix the problem of illegal immigration and the management of national borders. That would be the right thing to do, and what's more, it would also increase his chances for a second term. / Adapted "Pamphlet" from "The Economist"
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