FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Does Israel have a plan to administer Gaza, an enclave of over 2 million Palestinians? Or will he just pack his bags and go home?
Following the brutal Hamas terrorist attack against Israel on Saturday October 7, Tel Aviv launched Operation Iron Sword, in anticipation of a total encirclement of the Gaza Strip. Backed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who pledged full support for Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the Palestinian paramilitary organization must be crushed like ISIS and that "every member of Hamas is a dead man." The humanitarian situation in Gaza is worsening, as confirmed by the Associated Press, especially after Israel blocked the delivery of food, water, fuel and electricity to Gaza's 2.3 million residents and blocked the entry of supplies from Egypt.
Ground offensive ready
"Not a single power switch will be pressed, not a single faucet will be turned on and not a single fuel truck will enter until the Israeli hostages return home," Israeli Energy Minister Israel Katz said on social media. . Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, an Israeli military spokesman, told reporters on Thursday that the armed forces were "preparing for a ground maneuver" that would inevitably have a very high number of casualties among both civilians and Israeli soldiers. This is the largest compulsory mobilization since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Meanwhile, Israel continues to bombard the Gaza Strip with its air force, while Hamas responds by sending rockets into cities in the Jewish state. There is a fear of an expansion of the conflict. Syrian media reported that Israeli airstrikes hit international airports in the Syrian capital Damascus and the northern city of Aleppo.
What is the plan?
But what is Israel's real plan for Gaza? This was revealed in New Zealand by former Israeli ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon. An authoritative voice on the Israeli scene, now an MP and member of Netanyahu's Likud party. According to the ambassador, Israeli forces preparing to occupy the Gaza Strip "have no intention of re-establishing a permanent presence in the Hamas stronghold." Israel is preparing to "use force to restore order and ensure that Hamas is unable to do this again", i.e. the terrorist attack on Saturday 7 October.
In fact, Danon clarifies that Tel Aviv "does not intend to establish a permanent presence in the Palestinian enclave." "In the long term, we do not intend to hold Gaza. Our goal is not to govern Gaza. Our goal is to fight Hamas and then hopefully a new regime will emerge to manage the daily lives of Palestinians in Gaza. I don't think there will be any alternative but to topple Hamas, destroy its infrastructure," he said. Asked if Israel sees a realistic alternative to Hamas, Danon explains that today, in the Gaza Strip, there is no freedom of speech. and the expression. "But I am sure - he notes - that in a population of 2 million people you can find people who want to take care of the Palestinians in Gaza."
Doubts about the operation
Military analysts express doubts about the large-scale operation announced by Israel. Daniel Depetris points out, for example, that any "Israeli ground invasion of Gaza will require weeks, if not months, of fighting to complete." And even if Tel Aviv succeeds in achieving its military objectives, what will happen next? “Does Israel have a plan to administer Gaza, an enclave of over 2 million Palestinians? Or will it simply pack its bags, go home and hope that in time a half-decent Palestinian replacement for Hamas emerges? This does not seem like a viable strategy", explains Depetris in an analysis published in Neëseek. After all, the alternatives don't seem to be any better.
Relying on Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Authority may be highly futile, if not counterproductive, given that the vast majority of Gazans – 80% according to a recent poll – believe Abbas should step down and the Palestinian Authority dissolved.
The third option, however excluded by former ambassador Danon's statements, is a new occupation of the Gaza Strip by Israel. An operation so complex and impractical that even Ariel Sharon had never even considered it in the past. As for the United Nations, it turned out that the UN was largely useless in the case of the war in Ukraine, and even then there is a high probability that the vetoes will do nothing more than prevent the adoption of any resolution.
Deptris is not the only one expressing doubts about the upcoming offensive. As France24 explains, an Israeli intervention would also be dangerous for the Palestinian population living in Gaza and undoubtedly complicated for the soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). In fact, it is one of the most densely populated territories in the world, which has almost 5,500 inhabitants per square kilometer. An overpopulated patch of land that will force Israeli troops into hand-to-hand combat and significantly increase the risk of civilian casualties. Another complication is the dense network of tunnels, dubbed the "Gaza Subway" by Israeli security experts. Some tunnels are up to 30 or 40 meters deep, allowing Hamas members to move underground while tons of explosives fall from the sky. Although Tel Aviv believes it knows a good part of these tunnels, there remains another part that has not been found. An extremely complex context of war, in which even the release of civilian hostages will represent a difficult challenge for the Israeli IDF. Whatever happens, it will be anything but a simple operation. With the risk that the situation will explode into something even bigger. / Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Inside Over"
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