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Calls to build a nuclear bomb grew louder with Israel's unprecedented military operation against Iran last year...
When Iran's secret nuclear program became internationally known more than two decades ago, Tehran insisted that its goals were peaceful and that it had no plans to develop nuclear weapons.
The country’s then-supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, even went so far as to issue a fatwa, or legal ruling under Islamic law, banning them. But his death at the hands of the United States and Israel last month could pave the way for the regime’s more hardline factions to reconsider the decision. Public discourse in Iran is already moving in that direction.
"The nuclear fatwa is dead. Elite thinking, as well as public opinion, has changed dramatically on the issue, which should not be surprising, given that Iran has been bombed twice in the middle of negotiations by two nuclear-armed states," Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Citizenship told CNN.
For years, the former supreme leader resisted domestic pressure to authorize the construction of a nuclear weapon, especially after US President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear pact negotiated between Iran and the Obama administration in 2018.
Faced with escalating American and Israeli hostility, Khamenei instead stuck to his doctrine of what experts call “strategic patience.” He allowed Iran to steadily advance its uranium enrichment program, bringing the material ever closer to weapons-grade levels without crossing the threshold of actual bomb development.
Mojtaba's nuclear position is unclear
Calls to build a nuclear bomb grew louder with Israel’s unprecedented military operation against Iran last year, which killed several of the country’s military and nuclear leaders. The calls were further heightened by Trump’s order to strike three of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities. Even before those attacks, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had warned that Tehran was prepared to change its nuclear posture.
“ A reversal of Iran’s nuclear doctrine and policies, including a shift from previous considerations, is possible and conceivable ,” said Ahmad Haqtalab, the IRGC commander responsible for protecting Iran’s nuclear facilities, in 2024.
Iran has yet to publicly change its doctrine. However, it possesses more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. That would be enough to produce several nuclear weapons if Khamenei’s son and Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba, reverses his father’s fatwa. Uranium is a key fuel for nuclear power plants that can be used to create a bomb if enriched to high levels. Mojtaba remains in hiding, fueling speculation about his physical condition and his ability to make decisions as the IRGC tightens its grip on the country.
Asked whether Iran's nuclear policy would change under the new leadership, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera this month that he was unsure of the new leader's "jurisprudential or political stance" on nuclear weapons.
" As far as I understand, this should not change much from our previous policies, but we should wait until we become aware of his views ," he added.
Iran's reasons for restraint are over
Mojtaba's first alleged address as leader was a statement read by a news anchor on state television. In it, he vowed to avenge the death of his father and others killed in the war, but made no mention of the nuclear program, leaving observers to speculate about the fate of Iran's nuclear doctrine.
Iran's surviving leadership is also facing growing domestic calls for a reversal of nuclear policy. That pressure is mounting as the IRGC consolidates power and reassigns retired hardline commanders to lead a younger, more vengeful generation of fighters.
" We have entered a new phase. After this war, Iran will be recognized as a global superpower... We must take measures to produce or possess nuclear weapons," Nasser Torabi, a hardline commentator, told state television in a segment broadcast this month.
It appears that Iran's hardliners and the IRGC now feel there is an opportunity to change the long-standing nuclear doctrine, said Sina Azodi, author of the book "Iran and the Bomb: The United States, Iran, and the Nuclear Issue."
“One of the reasons they exercised nuclear restraint was the fear of attacks from Israel and the US. But at this point where they attacked anyway, all bets are off for them. This war has fundamentally changed everything, as the country is experiencing a lot of punishment ,” Azodi said. “
Could war lead to more nuclear weapons around the world?
Building a nuclear weapon depends on overturning the fatwa, gaining access to highly enriched uranium, and the ability to build a working bomb. Assuming the Iranian regime has access to its highly enriched uranium stockpile, it could choose to build a crude nuclear device rather than a sophisticated weapon that could be delivered by missile. This simpler, less complex design could still produce a real nuclear explosion, comparable in destructive power to early weapons. But it would be less efficient and much less militarily useful to deliver by missile.
Its main value would be instead this policy: to demonstrate nuclear capability and provide a measure of deterrence, experts say. But whether the possible creation of a crude device, known colloquially as a “dirty bomb,” or the construction of a more sophisticated nuclear bomb, deterrence is not guaranteed.
Iran cannot use its nuclear forces to threaten the United States. Its missiles cannot reach the United States, and even if they could, 50 nuclear warheads would not deter a country with 5,000 nuclear weapons. Iran’s deterrence policy over the decades has focused primarily on Iraq, Israel, and most recently Saudi Arabia. And if Iran were to pursue its own weapon, Riyadh would likely be the next regional candidate to try to build a bomb. The de facto Saudi leader even expressed this eight years ago.
Ka një ndryshim thelbësor midis Iranit dhe regjimit islamik të ajatollahut që ju e anashkaloni qëllimisht. Populli Iranian i diasporës feston hapas vdekjen e diktatorit. Brenda vendit ka pasur protesta masive dhe regjimi dyshohet se ka vrarë 50.000 iranianë, po ju e quani "udhëheqja mbijetuese e iranit" për turpin tuaj.