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Before the current conflict erupted, Mossad director David Barnea had warned the Israeli government that a regime change in Iran would not be a quick process. According to reports in the Jerusalem Post and other Israeli media, he estimated that such a scenario would take about a year to materialize.
In his analysis, Barnea considered several time scenarios, including the possibility of a more rapid collapse within months. However, the most realistic assessment remained a longer and more complex process, associated with the gradual weakening of regime structures and the creation of conditions for internal change.
According to the same sources, the head of the Israeli intelligence service emphasized that the overthrow of the regime would only be possible by striking key elements of power in Iran, including the political leadership and the security apparatus. In this context, military operations would serve to create space for an internal reaction from Iranian society.
Barnea's assessment is seen as a more cautious approach compared to the political rhetoric of rapid change. He warned that the process remains uncertain and dependent on multiple factors, including the response of security structures and the level of internal mobilization.
These predictions shed light on the strategy of Israel and its allies in the current conflict, where in addition to military objectives, the aim is also to weaken the Iranian political system in the longer term.
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