FLASH
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President Donald Trump's decision to cut off all U.S. aid to Ukraine is a bitter blow not only to Kiev but also to European allies, who have lobbied the U.S. administration to continue supporting it. This is not the first time the U.S. has withheld military aid. Republicans in Congress blocked the largest tranche of military aid to Ukraine under then-President Joe Biden in the summer of 2023.
Then, Ukraine almost managed to exhaust its existing ammunition stockpiles with European help. Congress finally approved the £60 billion aid package in the spring of 2024. It was just in time for Ukraine to fight off a renewed Russian offensive in Kharkiv. The late arrival of American weapons helped turn the tide.
As in 2024, it could be months before the effects of the cutoff in U.S. aid are felt, at least in terms of ammunition and equipment. European nations have been slowly ramping up their production of artillery shells. Overall, Europe now provides Ukraine with 60 percent more aid than the U.S. does. However, U.S. military support is still vital to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s ability to protect its people and cities has relied heavily on sophisticated US air defense systems such as Patriot batteries and NASAMS developed jointly with Norway. The US has given Ukraine the ability to conduct long-range strikes with HIMARS and ATACM missiles. The US has limited their use inside Russia, but they have still been vital for hitting high-value targets inside occupied territories.
It's not just the quality, it's the quantity. As the most powerful military in the world, it has been able to send hundreds of Humvees and armored vehicles in numbers that smaller European armies could never match. The lack of some of this aid may take time to filter down to the front lines. But it could have a more troubling immediate impact, not least in terms of intelligence sharing.
No nation can match the US in terms of space-based surveillance, intelligence gathering and communications. And it’s not just provided by the US military, but also by commercial companies. Take Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite communications network. Every Ukrainian position I’ve visited on the front lines has a Starlink dish.
They are used to relay the latest information on the battlefield. They have been essential for coordinating artillery and drone strikes. In the past, the Pentagon has admitted to funding this lifeline. Given that Elon Musk is a key figure in the US administration, it seems highly unlikely that he would now be willing to foot the bill. He is also a fierce critic of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Will the US prevent European countries from sending their US-made equipment to Ukraine? When Europe wanted to provide Ukraine with US-made F-16 jets, it first had to get Washington’s approval. And then, what about maintaining the US-supplied equipment? The US has also trained Ukrainian forces and then helped them maintain the US-supplied equipment.
Biden lifted restrictions on US contractors working in Ukraine until the end of his term. F-16 jets in particular need engineers and spare equipment to keep operating. Trump's decision to cut off aid may seem like a no-brainer to many in Ukraine and beyond. But there is also clearly a political aim to force them to the negotiating table more quickly. The hope among European allies is that it will be just a pause. Without US support, Ukraine will find itself in an even tougher fight for survival./BBC
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