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The Israeli Armed Forces estimate that Iran remains capable of continuing missile attacks against Israeli territory, despite the significant damage its missile infrastructure has suffered during recent operations.
According to Israeli military data, the operations have destroyed about 75 percent of Iranian ballistic missile launchers. Two days ago the estimate was 65 percent, which indicates that military interventions have continued and have produced new results on the ground.
Israeli authorities sought to reassure the population as rocket warning sirens continued to sound in many areas of the country. Millions of residents took refuge in safe rooms and shelters every day due to the constant alert.
The military also reports a gradual decline in the number of rockets fired at Israel. On the first day of the conflict, about 100 rockets were fired. In the following days, the number dropped to about 20 to 25 rockets, while recent estimates suggest about a dozen rockets in a single wave of attacks.
There have been no major attacks on Israeli territory for several days. However, a significant strike occurred on Sunday and another was reported on Monday. Meanwhile, the number of warning sirens has not decreased significantly.
According to Israeli military sources, the initial decline in the intensity of attacks does not necessarily indicate a quick end to these rocket operations. An example is the experience with Hamas, where rocket attacks decreased for several weeks after October 7, 2023, but continued with some frequency until early January 2024.
The Israeli military says it has carried out a large-scale strike on Iranian ballistic missile facilities. However, some of the capabilities remain active. Estimates suggest that there are between 100 and 150 remaining launchers and more than 1,000 missiles in units scattered across Iranian territory.
The vast geographic reach of these systems makes it significantly more difficult to completely neutralize the remaining capacities, as Iran ranks among the countries with the largest surface area in the world.
According to the Israeli military's assessment, a more realistic goal is to reduce the attacks to a level that does not cause casualties. In such a situation, these strikes would resemble the missile attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels, which from 2023 to 2025 caused disruption to daily life but rarely resulted in casualties.
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