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Six months before Election Day, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied, 37%-37% in an exclusive USA TODAY poll.
It couldn't be closer. Six months before Election Day, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied, 37%-37% in an exclusive USA TODAY poll.
While the country's stark polarization has set many political preferences in stone, 1 in 4 registered voters (24%) say they may change their mind before the November election and 12% have yet to make a choice. New poll offers a guide to who is most receptive to appeals in a campaign shaped by sharp divisions over abortion and immigration, as well as an unprecedented criminal trial of a former president now underway in New York .
Additionally, 8% are now supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr. independent and an additional 5% support other third-party contenders. Most of their supporters admit that they can change their allegiance before they cast their vote.
Tiffany Batton, 43, a Chicago independent who was among those surveyed, plans to vote for Biden.
" He inherited many problems from the previous administration. I feel like, given a chance, he could fulfill some of those campaign promises if he had another four years ," the social worker said in a follow-up phone interview.
But she may change her mind, depending on what happens in the Middle East and elsewhere. "The war in Israel has been very difficult for me," she said.
Brett Watchom, 36, a transit official from Denver who is also an independent, supports Kennedy, drawn to his position on housing and because he is "the only one who is not part of the horrible uniparty machine."
The poll of 1,000 registered voters, conducted by landline and cell phone Tuesday through Friday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Candidates have limited time ahead to make their case.
" When we think about the race with only 26 weeks to go, we have to keep in mind that people adjust politics and party conventions in July and August ," said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Center for Policy Research.
Biden wins among black voters, Trump loses among young voters
The new poll shows that Biden's standing against Trump is steadily improving, though within the poll's margin of error.
In the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll conducted in January, Biden was ahead of Trump by 3 points − 34%-37% − and in March he was down by 2 points, 38%-40%. Now they are equal. Since the beginning of the year, Biden has gained ground among some key voters, while Trump has lost it.
Among voters under 35, Biden has gained 1 percentage point and Trump has lost 12 since the January poll. Biden now holds a lead, 34%-25%, though not as overwhelming as he did in the 2020 election. Among Hispanic voters, Biden's support has remained the same, but Trump has lost 11 points. Biden now leads 34%-28%, still short of the 2-1 advantage he had in 2020.
Among independents, Biden has gained 5 points and Trump has lost 4. The two are now essentially tied, with Trump at 27% and Biden at 26%. Almost as many, 22%, are undecided and 23% are supporting third-party candidates.
Among black voters, Biden has gained 7 points since January, while Trump's position has not changed. They now support Biden 64%-12% — better than before, though still a long way from the 87% who voted for him in 2020.
Who is in the game? Young voters, Hispanic voters, independents and RFK supporters
The strength of third-party candidates can be built on sand. Eight in 10 of those who support Kennedy say they may change their minds before voting. So do 88% of those who support independent Cornel West, 65% of those who plan to support the Libertarian candidate, and 58% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Typically, support for third-party candidates declines as Election Day approaches, although in close elections the impact of drawing just thousands of voters in swing states can swing the election.
Other swing voters also say they may change their minds before November, including 43% of independents. Nearly half of independent women, 47%, are open to persuasion, one of the reasons why the Biden campaign has focused so intently on abortion access as an issue.
Some groups Democrats rely on in national elections say their minds are not firmly made up. This includes 37% of Hispanic voters, 27% of black voters and 44% of voters under 35.
More than two-thirds of respondents (69%) say the country is "on the wrong track;" less than 1 in 4 (23%) say "it's headed in the right direction." This is a less positive sign than the mood of the country in the March survey.
"Everything was better under Trump"
Then there are those voters who are definitely not in the game. Those who now support Biden say by 84%-14% that their minds are firmly made up. Trump supporters are tied by an equally wide 83%-16%. Both major party candidates have strengthened their position among their partisans.
Now 87% of Democrats support Biden, up 7 points since January; 84% of Republicans support Trump, up 5 points. A paltry 2% of Democrats and 1% of Republicans are crossing paths to support the presumptive nominee of the other major party./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "USA TODAY"
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