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Shkruar nga Paolo Rossetti
Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing is being interpreted as a strong political signal to the West and especially to the US. However, according to Italian analyst Giovanni Morandi, the relationship between Russia and China remains more of a cooperation of interests than a true strategic alliance.
After the Trump-Xi Jinping meeting, the Putin-Xi Jinping summit comes. According to the Russians and the Chinese, the two meetings are unrelated, but this is difficult to fully believe. The connection exists and is also dictated by the international context of wars and global economic crises.
However, for analyst Giovanni Morandi, the one between Russia and China, although both sides speak of an increasingly strong friendship, is not yet a genuine alliance.
In fact, their relationship cannot even produce a new world order.
It is more about a convergence of interests between Moscow and Beijing, dictated by geographical proximity and historical moment. But relations between them, according to Morandi, are likely to remain as they always have been: with ups and downs, very good in some periods and much colder in others.
Moscow and Beijing say Putin's visit to Xi Jinping is unrelated to Trump's visit to China. In fact, are they trying to send a message to the US president?
I think that in Chinese diplomacy nothing is a coincidence. History has forced the Chinese to be not only refined, but also very realistic. I do not believe that the timing of Trump's visit is coincidental, also because these meetings are not improvised, but prepared in advance.
There are talks of 40 agreements of various kinds: military, industrial, even in the media field. Is the China-Russia relationship a true alliance today?
Absolutely not. When the invasion of Ukraine happened and Putin accused the West, many thought that the international order was changing. The Kremlin leader declared at the time that Russia would not miss Europe because it would be closer to the East and especially to China.
This happened in part, but no one can say today that Russia and China are more connected than they were in the past.
So how can the relations between the two countries be defined?
Their relations have always had ups and downs and are based on concrete interests. Russia is a border country in the global scenario and cannot do without Europe, just as Europe cannot do without Russia. The same goes for China.
It may seem strange, because we have been through wars, casualties, and great upheavals, but after all that has happened in recent years, it can be said that essentially nothing has changed. Wars only confirm that they serve no purpose.
However, it is said that Russia and China will emerge from this summit with a political declaration on the creation of a new world order. Does this remain a shared objective?
It's the minimum they can produce. Political statements cost nothing. They are words that sound reasonable, but it remains to be seen whether they will be backed up by concrete actions.
Can BRICS become an instrument for realizing this new order?
I have the impression that economic relations are driven more by economics than
from politics. New alliances and groupings can be imagined, but if projects are not based on concrete and feasible interests, they will last very little.
The power of money wins over the power of political statements. In this case, I see more economic dynamics than political ones.
According to the Financial Times, Xi Jinping told Trump that Putin may regret the war in Ukraine. What impact could the Russia-China relationship have on current conflicts?
Whether Putin regrets it or not, we will never know, because he will never admit it publicly. But the recent Victory Day parade, staged in a very restrained manner out of fear of Ukrainian attacks, showed that this war has become embarrassing even for Russia.
At first it was called a "special operation" and anyone who called it a war risked prison. Today it is a war from which Russia will emerge, but at a very high price.
So it won't be a victory?
It will be a very costly victory for something the Russians had had before.
Russia and China also have good relations with Iran. Could they play a role in the Middle East crisis?
I think so, also because the negotiations between the US and Iran do not seem to be moving quickly. Therefore, the possibility that China and Russia will play a role, perhaps covert, behind the scenes, while the main political burden remains with Trump, cannot be ruled out.
In the end, what could be the real objective of the Putin-Xi Jinping summit?
Relations will remain what they have always been. In some very good periods, in others colder. As Giulio Andreotti once said, we cannot choose our neighbors. This also applies to China and Russia. We should not expect extraordinary results from this summit.
However, there will be discussion about the “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline. Could it create a stronger energy connection between the two countries?
I don't believe that China can be conditioned by such an agreement. There may be solutions that interest both countries, but this does not mean that the global energy system will be redesigned.
It is a project in which Russia and China have common interests, but it will not mark the birth of a new alliance. It may be beneficial for both countries to be friends with each other, but I do not see them imposing themselves together as protagonists of a new world order./Adapted from "Pamphlet", from "Il Sussidiario"
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