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The full resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Iran ceasefire is not guaranteed. Operational and political uncertainty limits a rapid return to supply and keeps prices above pre-conflict levels.
Maritime safety and insurance costs
The ceasefire creates a minimal space for transit, but does not automatically restore market confidence. Tanker operators are seeking clear security guarantees from the Iranian authorities before resuming large-scale operations.
Ship insurance remains a key factor. Without clear insurance terms and risk, insurance premiums remain high, increasing transport costs and consequently final energy prices.
Supply constraints: production and infrastructure
Even if transit resumes, supply will not be restored immediately. Gulf producers cut output by millions of barrels per day during the conflict.
Restarting wells and refineries requires time and technical investment. Estimates indicate a 3 to 6 month time horizon for a return to pre-war capacity.
In the gas market, damage to Qatar's liquefied natural gas infrastructure creates an even longer-term constraint, with effects that could last for several years.
Price dynamics and market expectations
Oil prices fell by about 13% after the ceasefire announcement, reflecting a reduction in geopolitical risk. However, they remain above pre-conflict levels.
This suggests that the market is not pricing in a full normalization of supply, but rather a scenario with a gradual recovery and residual risk.
Analysts suggest that prices will remain high for several months, while the potential for further increases is considered limited unless tensions escalate again.
Effects on importing countries
Asian economies, dependent on Hormuz, face supply delays even if transportation resumes immediately.
Transit times and the gradual recovery of the supply chain mean that new supplies can take days to weeks to reach markets.
This situation forces these countries to use strategic reserves and manage demand through emergency measures.
Transmission to consumer prices
The temporary drop in oil prices may be partially reflected in fuel prices, but this does not represent a full normalization.
Retail prices remain affected by previous import costs and uncertainty in the supply chain.
The resumption of oil transport through Hormuz depends on interrelated factors: maritime security, production recovery and political stability. Even in the scenario of a sustainable ceasefire, the market faces a transitional period with limited supply and relatively high prices.
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