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Shkruar nga Federico Giuliani
What will be Trump's relations with the leader of North Korea?
"He speaks and people drop everything to listen to him. I wish people would do the same to me." During the years of his first presidency, Donald Trump spoke thus of Kim Jong Un. Indeed: in reality the tycoon had labeled him "rocket man", "sick dog", "cruel dictator of North Korea", then moved on to "Chairman", the president, even "dear friend" . Now that Trump is back in the White House, what will happen between him and Kim Jong Un? A Kim, among other things, very different from the one who was met three times by Donald and with whom the Republican leader was about to conclude a historic diplomatic agreement.
Today the leader of Pyongyang is more aware of his tools; he has matured a lot as a man and as a person; has gained international weight and above all its military arsenal has made unimaginable progress. Kim then forged an ironclad partnership with Vladimir Putin's Russia out of thin air and — apparently — sent thousands and thousands of his soldiers into Ukraine alongside Kremlin forces.
The new leader, previously unknown and much denigrated by the Western press, has now become a 'strong' man. And he is no longer afraid of anything.
A new date?
"I had a great time with Kim. I got on well with the North Koreans, we even managed to stop their missile tests. Now North Korea is rebelling. When I get back, I'll start hanging out with Kim again. He would also like to see me again. I think I miss them...", Trump said during the speech when he was officially nominated as a candidate.
Assuming and not accepting that Trump does indeed decide to knock on Kim's door again, we will have to figure out whether the latter will be willing to open it. Yes, because the North's leader is still offended by Trump's sudden exit from the Hanoi summit, and may even refuse to work with the tycoon again. Unless… the Republican offers big (and tangible) benefits to Pyongyang.
But what does the North Korean government care about? Easing of sanctions, but also a progressive distancing of the United States from South Korea and Japan. Two countries with which, under the Biden administration, Washington has established important military relations precisely to keep Kim isolated.
"Whichever government takes office in the United States, the political climate will not change, and therefore we will not worry about it," the Korean Central News Agency wrote ahead of the US election. What about Trump? He is a politician who "has tried to reflect the special personal relationships between heads of state", without promoting "any essential positive change".
Where we were
For the record, the last official meeting between Kim and Trump ended in general chaos, with reporters wondering what the hell had happened in the heavily armored rooms of the Metropole Hotel in Hanoi. It was March 2019 and Vietnam was expecting the second US-North Korea meeting. It appeared that the two leaders could find an agreement, even if minimal, to begin to ease international tensions.
After their smiles and signs of friendship were immortalized in Singapore just a few months ago, it really seemed like the right time. And instead, against all expectations on the eve, the second Kim-Trump summit would have the same effect as a failure: interrupted talks, conflicting versions and zero agreement on the dual issue of sanctions against Pyongyang and denuclearization of Korea of the North. Each goes his own way, nervous companions, hawks from both countries ready to invade the diplomatic tables.
A subsequent, historic, impromptu handshake between Kim and Trump at the Demilitarized Zone in June 2019 would have been of little help. The Covid-19 pandemic, the defeat of Donald in the 2020 elections, the presidency of Joe Biden, or the outbreak of war in Ukraine destroyed everything. /adapted "Pamphlet" from "Inside Over"
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