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Ukraine's chief negotiator with Russia estimates that talks are approaching an agreement, leaving open the possibility of ending the war in a relatively short period of time.
Kyrylo Budanov, a top adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and former head of military counterintelligence, told Bloomberg that despite limited progress publicly, negotiations are moving toward a compromise and that Moscow is also aiming to end the conflict. “Everyone understands that the war must end. That’s why they are negotiating. I don’t think it will take much time,” he said.
Budanov, who has been the head of the presidential office since January, is a central figure in the trilateral talks between Ukraine, the US and Russia, and also plays an important role in the prisoner exchanges. Despite moving to the administration, he retains the rank of lieutenant general, combining political and military perspectives.
Markets reacted positively to the statements, with Ukrainian bonds strengthening and the euro recovering, while expectations for aggressive interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank eased.
Despite his optimism, he acknowledged that both sides still hold "maximalist" positions, but he believed they would move closer to a compromise. He also stressed that Russia has a strong economic motive for an agreement, given the high cost of war.
The main issue remains territorial, with Budanov avoiding defining a concrete solution. " There is no final decision yet, but everyone now understands the limits of what is acceptable. This is a big step forward," he said.
The Kremlin appears more reserved
However, Kremlin sources appear more reserved, speaking of limited progress, mainly due to disagreements over security guarantees for Kiev. Also, reaching an agreement requires a broader convergence between the US and Europe, which do not have a common position on the outcome of the war.
The only concrete development so far remains the exchange of positions that continue to be incompatible between the parties, according to the same sources.
In a symbolic move, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a brief ceasefire for Easter. Vladimir Putin ordered a halt to operations from April 11 to 12, while Zelensky declared that Ukraine would “respond” in kind.
Budanov stressed that the main achievement of the talks is to retain the US as a mediator. According to him, Kiev expects the visit of White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, possibly within the next week.
What do both parties want?
Ukraine is seeking clear security guarantees from the US to prevent future Russian aggression, an issue expected to dominate the talks.
Moscow wants Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the Donetsk region, including from territories it does not fully control, while Kiev favors a freeze on the current front line. The US has proposed the creation of a special economic zone in the region.
Ukraine continues to depend heavily on the military and financial support of its allies, mainly the European Union, while facing the risk of a financial gap in the coming months due to delays in the disbursement of European funds.
Meanwhile, the Russian economy is under pressure from rising fiscal deficits due to high military spending, although rising oil prices are providing temporary relief.
Despite Russia's numerical advantage in human resources, Budanov assessed that this does not translate into significant gains on the ground, as Ukraine exploits technological innovations, especially in drone warfare.
Asked about the possibility of the negotiations failing, he replied: "There are only two choices, war or peace. And not just a continuation of the war, but also of the negotiations. If they agree on this, they may not agree."
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