FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Yevgeny Prigozhin has just exposed the full extent of Vladimir Putin's weakness. In less than 24 hours, mercenary group leader Wagner made remarkable progress, taking control of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of the Southern Military District and posing the most serious challenge to Putin's leadership. The president did not seem all-powerful, but unable to control Prigozhon as he said his 25,000 troops were ready to march on Moscow.
On 9 May, when Prigozhin's challenge to Vladimir Putin first became apparent, I argued in the Spectator against the idea that Putin was 'in charge' of the situation. My analysis was based on the sense - since confirmed - that Prigozhin's complaints about munitions and attacks on a 'happy grandfather' leading the war effort had seriously undermined Putin's authority.
Such clashes should not happen in Putin's system. Minions can attack each other, but must never undermine the vertical structure. Prigozhin crossed this line. And Putin had to respond. But Putin's distant response to that challenge in May - he continued to act as if nothing was happening and only recently appeared to shift the blame to the Ministry of Defense, endorsing the idea that 'Wagner' should submit to it - sent a signal down the system.
Meanwhile, Prigozhin clearly understood that Wagner's time was running out and that he had to move. Three factors probably played a role. One is certain. Two are speculative (on my part). The first factor is Ukraine's counteroffensive, which squeezed the Russian army.
The second, and I am speculating here, is that Prigozhin probably sensed that Putin was coming around to the idea of supporting his rival, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Putin has previously been ambivalent, glossing over the entire conflict. The deadline that Shoigu had set for Wagner to be subordinated to the army on July 1 was approaching.
The third factor - and this probably explains the panicked reaction in Moscow - is that Prigozhin had people on the inside supporting him, supporting his bid for power. The Defense Ministry released the statements of Prigozhin's apparent former ally, General Sergei Surovikin (Prigozhin had called for Surovikin to be put in charge of the Defense Ministry) and GRU deputy head Vladimir Alekseev. Both condemned Prigozhin's bid for power. But a few hours later, Alekseev was filmed receiving a gift from Prigozhin in Rostov.
A po mbështetet Prigozhin nga shërbimi sekret rus? Natyrisht jo, pasi ata do donin arrestimin e tij. Nga Viktor Zolotov, drejtor i Gardës Kombëtare të Rusisë? Nga dikush tjetër? Ashtu siç ndodh shpesh në Kremlinologji, qentë po luftojnë nën rrogoz, por ne nuk do ta dimë se kush do të triumfojë derisa dikush të dalë në krye. Ajo që mund të shohim është se Putini u rrëzua shpejt dhe ashpër këtë herë. Ai bëri një deklaratë në video duke akuzuar Prigozhinin se kishte goditur Rusinë pas shpine. Ai premtoi se do t’i jepte një dënim të pashmangshëm ish-klientit të tij.
Drama ka ekspozuar se Rusia është në gjendje krize të thellë, ndryshe nga çdo gjë që ka përjetuar që nga viti 1991. Në atë kohë, një tentativë për grusht shteti nga ushtria dhe KGB ndaj Mikhail Gorbaçev zgjati vetëm tre ditë. Puçistëve u mungonte vullneti dhe vendosmëria për të marrë pushtetin në duart e tyre. Dështimi i vitit 1991, çoi me pak fjalë në rënien e Bashkimit Sovjetik.
Në gusht të vitit 1917, komandanti i përgjithshëm i ushtrisë ruse, Lavr Kornilov, tentoi një marshim në Shën Petersburg, në atë kohë kryeqyteti i Rusisë, gjoja për të frenuar bolshevikët dhe për të rivendosur kontrollin e qeverisë. Përpjekja e tij për grusht shteti ushtarak dështoi, por kontribuoi në kaosin që solli bolshevikët në pushtet në atë nëntor. Pasoi një luftë civile që i kushtoi Rusisë miliona jetë. Putin përmendi precedentin e vitit 1917 në fjalimin e tij drejtuar popullit rus. Është e qartë se ai është i vetëdijshëm për paralelet e rrezikshme.
Russia has a rich history of failed coups. They rarely bring an end. Prigozhin, with his projected march on Moscow, was relying on such an unhappy tradition. Results cannot be predicted. But Russian history has ways of reasserting itself./ Taken from 'The Spectator'.
Lini një Përgjigje