FLASH
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After five weeks of war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, it remains unclear how the conflict will end and what the global consequences will be.
After five weeks of war and Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, concern is growing about the duration and outcome of this confrontation in the Middle East.
Donald Trump's superlatives are predictable, but his decisions are not. The US president's address to the nation, delivered on the Wednesday evening before Easter, was largely self-aggrandizing. He did not give clear answers about the continuation of the war against Iran, as many observers expected. According to him, the conflict has lasted a month, but that is short compared to the Vietnam War.
The objectives, according to Trump, are almost achieved, but not completely, so the war should continue for another two or three weeks. If an agreement is not reached, Iran will be “bombed until the Stone Age,” he declared. This statement temporarily affected the reduction of oil prices. The world economy shows cautious optimism, but the future remains unclear, especially if there will be a ground offensive.
NZZ Pro presents three possible scenarios for the end of the war and their geopolitical consequences.
1. The US and Israel achieve their objectives, moving towards a period of calm
Even after a month of war, the Iranian regime continues its military resistance. Missile and drone attacks occasionally manage to penetrate the defenses of Israel, the US and the Gulf states. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked due to the risk of Iranian attacks.
However, in this scenario, the continued attacks by the US and Israel on Iranian military infrastructure are bearing fruit. The Revolutionary Guard and the army are significantly weakened. The strategy of eliminating key figures in the regime causes disunity and demoralization in the leadership.
Iran's reformist president manages to regain influence by allying with other reformist figures. Popular support for change grows. Meanwhile, Gulf states pressure Tehran to accept a settlement.
An internal regime change leads to a ceasefire and averts a civil war. Iran agrees to halt its nuclear program and allow international inspections. In exchange, the US and EU ease sanctions.
Energy prices fall and stabilize. Russia and China's influence in the region weakens, while the US strengthens its global position and focuses more on the Pacific.
2. End without major changes, an unstable phase
In this scenario, the Revolutionary Guard loses some of its capabilities, but continues its missile and drone attacks. Key Iranian targets remain well-protected. The war strengthens the resolve of radical forces in Iran, which mobilize nationalist sentiments. The blockade of Hormuz increases tensions in energy and financial markets. The International Energy Agency warns of a possible crisis. Trump, concerned about the domestic political consequences, seeks a quick exit from the war. He announces a deal, despite the objections of Israel and some regional allies.
Iran signals compromise, but there are suspicions that it is secretly continuing its nuclear program. Sanctions remain. Hormuz opens, but with informal controls by Iranian forces. The global economy stabilizes, but geopolitical tensions continue. The US is seen as less trustworthy, while China takes advantage of the situation. The world enters a long period of uncertainty with shifting alliances.
3. Global escalation, US weakening
In the worst-case scenario, the conflict escalates significantly. The US deploys ground troops in Iran and controls strategic areas. Iran responds with intense attacks on energy infrastructure and US forces.
Political opposition to the war grows within the US. However, Trump decides to also attack Iranian civilian energy infrastructure, provoking strong international reactions.
Oil prices rise above $150 a barrel. Financial markets destabilize and investment falls. Russia and China support Iran and increase their influence.
Iran expands the conflict by striking targets in Europe. The war takes on a global dimension.
In the end, the US withdraws, declaring success, but leaving behind a destabilized region. Russia and China gain ground and influence the formation of a new world order. Iran strengthens domestic control and advances its nuclear program.
The global economy weakens and uncertainty becomes the norm.
According to the analysis, developments in the coming weeks will be decisive. The outcome of this conflict could determine the direction of the international order for years to come. /Adapted Pamphlet /
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