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Perhaps the war in Ukraine could end around 2025, predicts the German military expert, Gustav Gressel urges not to waste time on meaningless debates, but to move forward with the production of armaments.
For the television portal, ARD, tagesschau, he said that this offensive has clearly fallen behind what was expected at the beginning, as well as its own objectives to reach the coast of the Sea of Azov and separate Crimea from Russian protection. Achieving this objective does not seem realistic, according to him. "Currently, the Ukrainian offensive is apparently targeting the southern city of Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhya region. But the Russian units have entered very deep there, and it will be difficult to break them. But there are also special successes. The Ukrainians have recently started to withdraw the tired troops from the front and replace them with young ones, who have more power and are more lively in the attack."
Weary troops are found on both sides of the battle
But according to Gressel, the tired troops at the front are a symptomatic sign for both the Ukrainian and Russian armies. "The consumption in this war has been very large and on the Russian side even a little higher than on the Ukrainian side. Both sides are withdrawing their reserves. The personnel being mobilized is getting older. The military training was carried out long before the mobilization , and this leads to a lot of forgetfulness and loss of professionalism, This is a problem for the commanders of both sides. On the Russian side, this is compounded by the fact that there is no rotation and the morale is partly weaker. Older soldiers arrive faster from overexertion to their limits. The question is, how much is this worth to the Ukrainians."
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's statements about possible peace negotiations were rejected, but they caused a lot of reactions, raising the question of whether scenarios are being prepared to start negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. According to expert Gressel, NATO does not deal with this, but there will be governments and allies who think about it. "The White House and the chancellor's office in Berlin are clearly oriented that at some point, Ukraine will negotiate with Russia and that the weapons supplies are intended to put Ukraine in a better position vis-a-vis Russia."
The problem, according to Gressel, is that both Ukraine and Russia want a decision from this war. Russia further aims to eliminate Ukraine as an independent state, and will not negotiate anything lower than this military goal. Ukraine, for its part, defines this war more and more as a war for independence and wants Russia to finally be forced to recognize Ukraine as an independent state. "The desire for negotiations does not reflect the political reality of the warring parties."
Expert Gustav Gressel expects the war to continue next year. "We have to reckon with that the war will probably last until 2025. If Donald Trump were to win the presidential election in 2024, according to the Russian view he could offer a 'deal' in January 2025, so spring 2025 would be the earliest time that for the Russian side could bring an end to the war on its own terms. If Biden wins the election, which at the moment seems more likely, the war can be expected to last beyond 2025."
Expert Gressel asks not to waste time on meaningless debates and to move forward with the production of armaments to help Ukraine. Tanks, tank defenses, fighter jets must be produced quickly to support Ukraine for several years of war, as the West's reserves are being depleted, Gressel says. And the discussion about what will be given to Ukraine from the reserves should not always start from the beginning.
Based on Gustav Gressel's interview for tagesschau. Gustav Gressel is a senior expert at the European Council on Foreign Affairs in Berlin./DW
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