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Orbán is at a disadvantage in the country, about 8 percentage points behind Péter Magyar in polls ahead of the April 12 election...
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has decided that a showdown with Brussels is exactly what his faltering election campaign needs.
Orbán is trailing at home, about 8 percentage points behind Péter Magyar in the polls ahead of the April 12 election. That is why he has turned to attacking his two usual targets abroad: Brussels and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In this way, he is trying to put Magyar, 44, a member of the European Parliament, who according to polls is on track to defeat him, in trouble.
Magyar has built his lead in the polls by focusing on the corruption, mismanagement and cronyism that, in his opinion, have characterized Orbán’s 15 years in power. He does not want the election race to turn into a showdown between him presenting himself as the pro-EU or pro-Ukraine candidate.
Yet this is precisely the direction Orbán is now pushing his campaign. On the international stage, his government has taken the confrontational step of blocking the EU’s €90 billion financial package for Ukraine, approved at a European Council meeting in December, accusing Kiev of dragging its feet on repairs to the Druzhba pipeline that supplies Hungary with oil.
The timing of this move is linked to his electoral difficulties. After inciting a clash with Brussels over Ukraine, he has further upped the ante this week, accusing Magyar’s Tisza party of betrayal and of supporting the EU and Zelensky in this showdown.
Orbán on the offensive
Orbán himself is leading the offensive. He presents the clash with Brussels and Kiev as the same as his battle against the Tisza party, which he accuses of maintaining a shameful silence over problems with Ukrainian oil supplies.
“ In line with Brussels and Kiev, instead of a national government, Tisza wants to bring a pro-Ukrainian government to power in Hungary. That is why they do not protect the interests of the Hungarian people and Hungary,” Orbán argued in a Facebook post on Monday.
He then published another post in which he said Tisza would damage the country’s energy sector and insisted that his Fidesz party was “the safe choice in April.”
“The opposition’s goal is chaos, fuel shortages and rising gas prices before the elections. That is why they have sided with Zelensky, against the Hungarian people,” Orbán said.
Magyar responded to the accusations by avoiding a direct defense of the EU or Zelensky. He said the prime minister’s economic mismanagement was driving up prices and pointed out that gas was cheaper in Poland, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria.
Orbán is not governing effectively and shows no interest in the ever-worsening situation for Hungarian citizens and businesses. Instead, he chooses to lie, incite hatred and burden the country with some of the highest taxes in Europe ,” Magyar said.
How pro-EU is Magyar really?
For the EU, the main concern is how long Orbán will drag out this standoff. Ukraine urgently needs the 90 billion euros in funds that are currently blocked, while six weeks of uncertainty due to the Hungarian election could increase geopolitical tensions over the war in Ukraine.
While much of Brussels hopes for a Magyar victory, mainly to end Budapest’s obstruction of Ukraine, Orbán’s attacks carry an irony: Magyar is not a clearly pro-EU politician, let alone pro-Ukraine. In some respects, he has run an even more nationalist campaign. For example, Tisza voted against the 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine in the European Parliament, and Magyar has strongly opposed plans for accelerated membership of Kiev in the EU.
In an interview in 2024, Magyar said that Tisza is pro-EU but spoke out about the union’s shortcomings. He expressed opposition to a European “superstate” and declared that he had “no friends” in the European Parliament. This followed his first press conference in Parliament, where he opposed sending weapons to Ukraine.
Earlier this year, Orbán’s Fidesz party tried to get him into trouble over the huge EU-Mercosur trade deal with South America, which it opposes on the grounds that it harms Hungarian farmers. In Budapest, Orbán accused Magyar of supporting the deal and undermining the interests of farmers, because Tisza is part of the European People’s Party group in the European Parliament, which supported the trade pact.
However, in January, Tisza voted to freeze the ratification of the EU-Mercosur agreement, going against the EPP line, a move that, according to an official present, provoked a backlash against the Hungarian delegation at a later meeting of the group.
Magyar’s complicated relationship with Brussels was also on display at the Munich Security Conference this month. He used the event to initiate contacts with key European figures, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, as well as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.
His messages were cautious. Magyar stated that he intends to undo the damage that, in his opinion, Orbán has caused to democratic and judicial norms, with the main goal of restoring Hungary’s access to EU funds and protecting “Hungarian interests.” Regarding Ukraine, he used more reserved language.
“The main priority of a future Tisza government will be to secure the EU funds that belong to Hungary. To achieve this, we will immediately introduce strict anti-corruption measures, restore the independence of the judiciary, and protect the freedom of the media and higher education ,” he wrote on the X platform after meeting with Merz on February 14. He also stressed that he does not support accelerated Ukrainian membership in the EU.
-An ambiguous figure
Overall, Magyar remains a difficult figure to define for observers of the EU and Ukraine. Even within the EPP group, to which Tisza belongs, question marks remain. As for Ukraine, it is clear that a Magyar victory would not immediately bring a significant improvement in relations with Kiev. However, EU and Ukrainian diplomats hope that he will not deliberately hinder the union's efforts, as Orbán has done. / Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "Politico"
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