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Turkey, like the EU, has been excluded from US-Russia diplomacy on Ukraine. But President Erdogan wants his country to be part of the upcoming negotiations on Ukraine. How realistic is this request?
A new era has begun in the Russia-Ukraine war after the phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the open disagreements between the US and the Europeans at the Munich Security Conference and several other developments. Diplomatic activities have intensified significantly recently: first of all, the Europeans and Ukraine itself are trying to regroup. This is precisely why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Turkey this week.
Turkey is not currently sitting at the negotiating table with the United States and Russia, but its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still hopeful that his country will play a key role in future peace talks with Russia as well as in the new security architecture.
Turkey's balance between Russia and Ukraine
During the war between Russia and Ukraine, Turkey consistently tried to keep diplomatic channels open for both sides, cultivating good relations with both Moscow and Kiev. Erdogan wants to continue this policy.
He reiterated this during Zelensky’s visit to Ankara. Erdogan stated that Turkey would provide all possible support to ensure that the negotiations end in a lasting peace. He recommended Turkey as “an ideal host for possible talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US”. Erdogan stressed that both sides see Turkey as a “trusted mediator”. But it is not known whether this proposal will be accepted.
Bypassing Turkey
Helin Sari Ertem, a political scientist at Medeniyet University in Istanbul, points out that Turkey has long wanted to take on the role of mediator in this conflict as a rising regional power. However, Turkish efforts have recently encountered obstacles.
“Turkey has felt left out – as have European countries – since the US-Russia summit in Saudi Arabia. This should be made clear.” Ankara has invested heavily in its mediation role. “But will Turkey still play a role? It is possible that the US wants this,” says Ertem, adding that Turkey is ready to take on this role.
Turkey played a constructive role in creating the so-called “grain corridor” in the Black Sea, which enabled the export of key food products from Ukraine. Fatih Ceylan, a former Turkish ambassador to NATO, recalls that Ankara tried to mediate negotiations in Antalya and Istanbul in the early months of the war. However, excluding Europe from the discussion of Turkey’s role has put all of Ukraine’s European partners – and Turkey itself – in an unenviable position. Until it becomes clear what kind of plan is being proposed, it is impossible to give any meaningful support. “It is an illusion,” says Ceylan.
He warns that the current crisis in US-European relations over security, economy and trade could also affect Turkey. “If anyone thinks they can stay on the sidelines, that is an illusion,” Ceylan emphasizes. The weakening of European economies due to the conflict would also negatively affect Turkey’s trade balance. “This would also directly affect Turkey,” he concludes.
Turkey and security in Ukraine
During a press conference with Erdogan, Zelensky stressed the importance of comprehensive security guarantees for Ukraine. Shortly before leaving Ankara, he repeated this demand to reporters: “If NATO is not a guarantee, then who will guarantee our security?”
"We also discussed with President Erdogan possible security guarantees from strong countries with strong militaries, including Turkey," he said.
According to Fatih Ceylan, there are still many open questions: "It is not enough to just say: We will send troops! So, first, the bilateral negotiations between the US and Russia must be transferred to a broader, multilateral framework."
Only then can Turkey play a more important role. Helin Sari Ertem believes that Turkey, like other European countries, can be involved in maintaining peace in eastern Ukraine. Ankara may be better prepared for this than many EU members.
The Black Sea and the Montreux Convention
Erdogan noted that new rules on the safety of maritime traffic in the Black Sea could be a key element of building trust for the peace process. Fatih Ceylan warns that if Russia retains the occupied territories in Ukraine after the peace negotiations, the importance of the Black Sea would take on a new dimension. In that case, the safety of maritime navigation in the Black Sea would have to be reviewed and Turkey would inevitably become part of these security guarantees.
If there is talk of a rapid peace process in the future, the security of the Black Sea, especially the free passage of merchant ships, will become an even more important topic. Political scientist Ertem recalls that during the war in the Black Sea, mines were laid off the coasts of Ukraine and Russia, endangering merchant ships, which Turkey values highly. Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey have already signed an agreement to remove them.
“Since the US-Russia talks in Riyadh, we see that the most discussed issue is ensuring peace within Ukraine. However, this should not be seen only through the prism of territorial peace in Ukraine. Peace in the Black Sea must also be ensured. “I think this is exactly what Turkey will pay attention to,” Ertem concludes./DW
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