FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Experts warn: Against Tehran, air superiority is not enough...
Israel's attack on Iran, including its nuclear program and ballistic missiles, is unlikely to achieve the Jewish state's long-term strategic objectives, even if Benjamin Netanyahu manages to convince the Trump administration to join the fight in the coming days or weeks, experts warn.
According to diplomats, military specialists and security analysts, both Israel and its prime minister are facing increasing obstacles, while assessments indicate that the offensive could severely destabilize the region.
There are serious doubts whether even the US, with its super-penetrating bombs, can destroy the Fordow facility, an Iranian uranium enrichment plant built deep into a mountain, protected by some 90 meters of rock. Serious questions have also been raised about Israel's ability to sustain a prolonged air campaign, while its cities are exposed to ballistic missile attacks.
Experts distinguish between Israel's operational success, precise strikes on specific targets and individuals, and strategic objectives, which appear to have extended to overthrowing the regime in Tehran, in addition to destroying nuclear capabilities.
“ There is a deep historical trend in Israeli politics that has convinced leaders that violence can solve problems that are inherently political ,” said Toby Dodge, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics.
" Instinctively, the Iranian regime seems to me more stable than it claims. And since Iran has a long history of engaging in technological modernization and weapons proliferation, this is not something that is solved with a bomb ," he added.
Many analysts fail to understand the Israeli strategy that seems to have gambled everything on the hope of provoking an unpredictable American president like Donald Trump into entering the conflict, providing the destructive power that Israel itself lacks.
The operation to hit Fordow would require the use of several super-heavy American bombs, dropped in close proximity to the facility, in a complex and risky mission that does not guarantee success. Moreover, such an attack would most likely provoke Iranian retaliation against American bases, increasing the risk of a major escalation.
" If the US subcontracts the Fordow strike, then America automatically becomes Iran's target ," former US ambassador to Israel Daniel Kurtzer and national security expert Steven Simon write this week in Foreign Affairs.
" Iran would retaliate, perhaps by killing American civilians, which would force Washington to retaliate. And then the only targets the US would have left would be the leaders of the Iranian regime – so we would end up back in the business of regime change, something few Americans want today ," it continues.
Ideas for overthrowing the Iranian regime, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—a suggestion made by some Israeli officials and reportedly rejected by Trump—have caused great alarm in the region. Even influential figures like Iraq’s Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani have intervened publicly to warn of the profound dangers this poses to regional stability.
Another skeptic is Andreas Krieg, a professor at King's College London and an expert on Middle East affairs. He doubts that air power alone can achieve objectives such as destroying nuclear knowledge or overthrowing a clerical regime.
" It's not the magic key. History has taught us that air power is not enough. Even with massed infantry in Iraq and Afghanistan, we didn't succeed ," he said.
" What we are seeing today is not a strategy, but an operation that is consuming the long-term political objective. At best, Israel can achieve a temporary result like in the war against Hezbollah ," he added.
Iran, he adds, is built on a decentralized defense strategy: “ Beheading doesn’t work in such a system. Even if you kill Khamenei, the most you can achieve is to cause a succession crisis – but even that is already foreseen by the regime .”
If Netanyahu has miscalculated, it is precisely in an area he claims to be an advantage: reading American politics.
Support for U.S. military intervention is low, and the issue is divisive among Trump's own MAGA base. In this climate, Netanyahu risks being embroiled in a heated debate that interests Trump less than Israel itself.
Absent American intervention, Israel will face increasing difficulties: a lack of missile interceptors, fatigue of pilots and aircraft, and a lack of new targets. Any weakening will be exploited by Tehran to show that Iran has weathered the storm.
There is another scenario. In his book Waging Modern War, NATO commander during the Kosovo campaign, Wesley Clark, wrote that the aim of the bombing was to force the Serbs to sit at the table. With the resumption of diplomatic contacts, including meetings in Geneva with European states, Trump himself has suggested that there is still time for diplomacy.
Even if Iran is forced to accept a new nuclear deal, Israel could face hidden costs – including the survival of the Iranian regime, now even more hostile to Israel, and the exposure of the limitations of Israeli military power.
“ If Khamenei has enough sense to back down, and America doesn’t get involved ,” Dodge says, “ then Israel has simply stuck its finger in the hive .” / Adapted from “Pamphlet” by “The Guardian”
Lini një Përgjigje