FLASH
Shkruar nga Paolo Rossetti
The vacuum that will be created could be filled by turning to militias led by the country's minorities, or by the army, which could carry out a coup, presenting it as the way to keep Iran united and avoid worse scenarios...
The war against Iran has become a means to overthrow Ali Khamenei's regime, replacing it with the military, minorities, or a pro-Western government. Israel wants to reshape the Middle East, and it is doing so in the way that suits it best: by relentlessly attacking Iran.
But to implement his plan, Benjamin Netanyahu needs US super-bombs (GBU-57A/B and MOP, Massive Ordnance Penetrator), which can render the enemy's most protected nuclear bases unusable. But now the real objective of the military operation seems to be the fall of the regime.
Camille Eid, a Lebanese journalist living in Italy and an analyst at the newspaper Avvenire, says that the vacuum that will be created could be filled by turning to militias led by the country's minorities, or by the army, which could carry out a coup, presenting it as the way to keep Iran united and avoid worse scenarios.
Pending official confirmation of the US entry into the war, Trump's statements seem to leave little room for diplomatic logic: "unconditional surrender", "my patience is exhausted", "this is my final ultimatum", are expressions that leave little room for other solutions, except those that involve even stronger attacks on Iran. Although as usual, the American president hints that he has some doubts about his true intentions.
Regardless of whether Trump decides to go directly to war or not, does his demand for unconditional surrender constitute a declaration of full-scale war on Iran?
The decision to enter the war has already been made, although it has not been officially announced.
But the Americans were already influencing this conflict, not only by helping the Israelis defend themselves from Iranian missiles, but also by supporting them with their logistics, to ensure the fuel supply of the fighter jets that attacked Iran.
Not to mention the work of the secret services. Now Israel needs anti-bunker bombs to destroy the nuclear power plant in Fordo. The Americans will use them, having sent aircraft carriers to the area, while they also have their bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain.
Could the Iranians attack American bases in these countries?
The United States warned Iran not to harm its soldiers. And 24 hours before the attack, it allowed the soldiers' relatives to leave the bases. For now, Iran has not moved in this direction, nor has it mobilized all the pro-Iranian factions and militias scattered across Iraq and Lebanon, to avoid aggravating the situation.
I don't know how long this war will last, but the Israelis have shown a capacity beyond expectations. They have managed to bomb as far as the Mashhad area, in the far northeast, and thanks to their espionage, they have killed Iranian scientists and senior commanders.
What is the strategy that guides the Israelis?
Netanyahu started the war with a single objective: destroying the nuclear program. But then, when he announced that he had neutralized Iran's nuclear capabilities, he went further. This is a sign that he may have something else in mind. The objective seems to be the redistribution of power in the Middle East.
After hitting all the groups close to Iran, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel decided to go to the source and hit Tehran. There are now contacts on both the Israeli and European sides with Kurdish, Arab and Baluchist opposition groups that could launch a final attack on the regime.
This scenario warns of a fragmentation of Iran. The country is multiethnic: Persians make up just over 50 percent of the population, but Khamenei himself is an Azeri. So they are playing their cards to overthrow the regime. It is no coincidence that Trump has demanded Iran's unconditional surrender. On the other hand, out of 16 high-ranking military posts in the country, 8 have been reorganized or are vacant. The Israelis have hit the regime's dome, especially among the Pasdaran.
How is Iran performing in terms of military capabilities?
I don't see any great intensity in the rocket fire towards Israel. The first day they fired 200 rockets, while the following nights the number dropped to 30. They must still have 1,600 rockets, but at this point we have to wonder where they are, and whether they have kept them for later use.
The Israeli attack is actually aimed at regime change. But who will be given power?
For a popular uprising, an armed force is needed to support it. An internal coup by the military may occur. In 1979, it was the military that dealt the Shah a fatal blow by siding with Khomeini.
They would do this to save what could be saved, to make sure that everything ends without further destruction, while at least preserving the unity of the country. The groups that are part of the opposition often operate in Baluchistan, in the east, and in Khuzestan near Basra, but move locally. But some also support the Shah's son, Reza Pahlavi.
The attack was accelerated because the nuclear talks were going nowhere?
Trump changed his mind within a day about the negotiations. At first, he said he was close to a deal, and a few hours later declared that there was not much chance of success.
Does the US agree with provoking the overthrow of the regime?
So far, they have used the Iranian threat to exercise a kind of blackmail against the Gulf countries, which have spent a lot of money on billion-dollar contracts with the US, related to military equipment (for example, aircraft), to have Washington on their side.
It is the same money that the Americans later used to finance Israel. If Iran becomes pro-Western, it would no longer be a 'gogol' for these countries. In this sense, the US has an interest in keeping a regime like the current one, even if it is very weakened, in order to continue to have this kind of influence over the Persian Gulf countries. But on the other hand, Israel wants to be the only regional power.
What does Israel really want?
We are witnessing the birth of a new Middle East. According to Netanyahu's vision, anything is possible: the Israeli prime minister sees a new regime in Iran aligned with the West. Now Pakistan is also alarmed. Netanyahu himself has previously stated that as soon as he is done with Tehran, he will attack Islamabad. /Adapted from Pamphlet "Il Sussidiario"/
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