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Chinese-Canadian professor Xueqin Jiang, who runs the popular YouTube channel Predictive History, has gone viral online for a series of geopolitical predictions he made in 2024, two of which he says have already been confirmed.
Jiang presented the predictions in May 2024 at the educational institution where he teaches in China. The video of the presentation was later published on his YouTube channel, which currently has about 1.87 million subscribers.
According to Jiang, the first prediction was Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election and his return to the White House for a second term. The second prediction related to the possibility that, if Trump were to become president again, the United States would be involved in a military conflict with Iran.
The professor links this scenario to current developments in the Middle East, including the joint US-Israeli operation called "Operation Epic Fury."
Jiang's third prediction concerns the likely outcome of such a conflict. He argues that in the event of a protracted war, the United States would face serious strategic difficulties.
According to his analysis, factors such as Iran's mountainous terrain, large population, and long supply lines would make a prolonged US military operation on Iranian territory very difficult. In one of his videos, he compared such a scenario to the Athenian Sicilian Expedition (415-413 BC), which ended in a heavy defeat for Athens during the Peloponnesian War.
Jiang says his predictions are based on the analysis of historical patterns, geopolitical motivations, and the use of game theory. He often cites Isaac Asimov's Foundation series of novels as inspiration, which describes the concept of "psychohistory," the idea of predicting major historical developments through statistical and historical analysis.
In recent interviews, including an appearance on the American program Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, Jiang argued that Iran has been preparing for decades for a potential conflict with the United States. He also cited the role of Iranian-aligned actors in the region, such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, who he said have developed experience in confronting American and Israeli military tactics.
The professor also emphasized the strategic impact of Iranian actions in the region, citing attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and the importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global energy and goods supplies.
Jiang's predictions have attracted widespread attention online and in the media, while international analysts continue to follow with interest developments in the Middle East and debates over possible scenarios of an expanded conflict.
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