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Italian Prime Minister Enters Direct Campaign, Polls Show Risk of Loss in March 22-23 Vote
Italy's right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Thursday put herself at the forefront of the campaign for a crucial referendum, putting her political weight on the line as the vote increasingly becomes a test of her authority.
The referendum on judicial reform, to be held on March 22-23, is a crucial showdown for Meloni. The Italian right has long sought an opportunity to reshape the legal system, which it sees as biased in favor of the left.
However, the national plebiscite has evolved beyond a vote on rules governing the careers and oversight of justice officials, becoming a broader vote of confidence in her and her government. The latest polls suggest she could face the first major setback of her term as prime minister, just as she appeared to be consolidating her position in Italy and Brussels.
On Thursday, Meloni appeared in a harsh tone, accusing the current justice structure of many cases of miscarriages of justice and calling some court decisions "surreal."
Speaking at the Franco Parenti theater in Milan, Meloni reiterated the main arguments of her campaign, insisting that judges are not accountable and acting out of control. She is also increasingly portraying the judicial system as run by left-wing opposition “factions” and accusing judges of blocking her main objective of curbing illegal migration and crime.
"If the reform doesn't pass this time, we may not have another chance. We will face even more powerful factions, even more careless judges, even more surreal decisions, while immigrants, rapists, pedophiles and drug traffickers will be released and put your safety at risk," she said.
Meloni then added, "when justice doesn't work, you can't do anything, no one can do anything, except this time ," calling on citizens to go out to vote later this month.
So far, Meloni had kept her distance from the campaign, encouraging allies and ministers to convey the message while she herself limited herself to random comments and sporadic attacks on judges.
But after the latest public polls last week showed her camp could lose by around 5 percentage points, the prime minister has now decided to get more directly involved.
Opposition figures say this move shows that the government is afraid of losing.
“ The prime minister, contrary to her commitment not to involve the government in the referendum, has thrown herself completely into the campaign, ” said MP Alfredo D’Attorre, a key figure in the opposition center-left Democratic Party. “It is clear that she is very worried about the result.”
He added that voters might not be impressed if Meloni "spends the next two weeks being an influencer for the 'yes' vote" rather than governing Italy "at a time of international tension."
Indeed, Meloni is also facing political difficulties domestically due to her alliance with US President Donald Trump, who is very unpopular in Italy, as well as due to the war in Iran, which Italians fear could further increase their energy bills.
A political bet
The challenge for Meloni is that the referendum campaign focuses on technical institutional changes that are difficult to explain and even more difficult to mobilize voters around.
"The arguments are very technical and abstract, which doesn't win people's hearts ," said Giovanni Orsina, a political historian at Luiss University in Rome.
"The opposition has a stable base of voters who will come out against Meloni no matter what. How can it mobilize its supporters? By creating an enemy and a clash between good and evil," Orsina added.
Meloni has tried to frame the referendum around issues that resonate most strongly with her electorate, particularly migration and public safety.
Orsina said Meloni's cautious entry into the campaign made political sense.
"As prime minister, you can't expose yourself too much," he said, adding, " if you become the face of the campaign and you lose, you pay the price."
According to him, she will monitor private polls and test the ground. "If she enters the campaign and the polls move in her favor, she will become more present. If not, she may withdraw to avoid a full blow ," Orsina stressed.
The dilemma is clear: without Meloni's direct involvement, the campaign risks losing momentum. But the more the referendum is linked personally to him, the greater the political damage will be in the event of a loss.
“The referendum has proven to be an unnecessary risk for Meloni,” Orsina said.
Italians know well that former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi was forced to resign after losing the referendum on constitutional reform in 2016. However, Meloni insists that he will not leave office, regardless of the outcome.
"There is no way I would resign under any circumstances. I want to see this legislature through," she said. /Adapted from Politico /
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