FLASH
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As the climate changes, the weather in Europe is becoming more extreme. What could this summer bring in terms of heat waves, droughts, floods, forest fires?
The overall outlook is pessimistic as we have already seen this winter and spring.
According to a European Environment Agency extreme weather report published a few days ago, the main weather-related climate challenges we face this summer are explained.
Major floods, severe storms, record heat waves, extreme weather are on the rise due to climate change. This is affecting people, ecosystems and economies around the world.
"Extreme temperatures not only affect the health of vulnerable groups, but also cause concern for everyone. Rivers and lakes are drying up, affecting all the life that depends on them. Lands are also drying out, increasing fire risks and reducing agricultural productivity. Other parts of Europe are experiencing intense downpours, sometimes flooding buildings and damaging property and infrastructure within minutes. Coastal areas will be at risk from more frequent storms, also resulting in flooding of buildings or agricultural land," the report said.
Extreme weather also comes with a financial bill. Referring to the analysis published in the report of the European Environment Agency, if European countries do not take measures, economic losses will continue to increase. The panorama presented in the report is really pessimistic.
"Between 1980 and 2021, weather and climate-related extremes caused economic losses estimated at €560 billion in EU Member States, of which €56.6 billion in 2021 alone. Analyzing trends in economic losses is difficult, partly because of the high variability of the weather from year to year. However, some statistical analyzes have revealed that economic losses increase over time. While severe extreme weather and climate-related events are expected to intensify further, it seems unlikely that the associated economic losses will diminish by 2030."
In the past 40 years, extreme weather has been responsible for:
-85,000 to 145,000 human deaths across Europe over the past 40 years. Over 85% of the casualties were due to heat waves.
-Economic losses from weather and climate-related extremes in Europe reached about half a trillion euros during the same period and are increasing annually by over 2% on average.
Outlook: What can this summer bring?
Heat waves that are dangerous to human health, such as the summer heat waves of 2022, are becoming more frequent, longer and more intense, and will continue to do so under all climate scenarios. summer.
In southern Europe, in particular, there can be more than 60 summer days during which conditions are hazardous to human health, meaning higher numbers of deaths and hospitalizations, especially among the elderly and the sick.
Heavy rainfall is forecast to increase across much of Europe, leading to increased incidence of flooding, particularly in northwestern and central Europe. Measures must be taken to avoid a repeat of the July 2021 flooding scenario in Germany and Belgium.
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