Although Trump insisted that US policy towards Taiwan has not changed, his comments created the impression that Xi Jinping has managed to influence the way he views the Taiwan issue.
For a moment, it seemed in Taiwan that the crisis had been averted. During Donald Trump's two-day visit to Beijing, which ended on May 15, the US president avoided making public statements about Taiwan. This temporarily calmed concerns in Taipei that he might bow to Chinese pressure to limit arms sales to the island or even change the official US position by declaring that it "opposes" Taiwanese independence.
But the situation changed quickly.
In a Fox News interview recorded shortly before leaving Beijing, as well as in statements to reporters on Air Force One, Trump made comments that caused alarm in Taiwan. He suggested that the 44-year-old US commitment not to negotiate with China on arms sales to Taiwan may no longer be valid.
Trump said he had discussed “in detail” with Chinese President Xi Jinping the new arms package for Taiwan, worth about $13 billion, calling it a “very good bargaining chip.” He also portrayed Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te as a leader who seeks formal independence for the island and could drag America into a military conflict.
Another statement by Trump surprised analysts and regional diplomats. He said he could discuss the arms package with “the person who runs Taiwan.” There has been no direct contact between sitting US presidents and Taiwan since 1979. The only exception was a phone call between then-President Tsai Ing-wen and Trump in 2016, when he was still president-elect.
Trump also repeated his previous accusations that Taiwan "stole" America's semiconductor industry and said chip production should be moved to the US. The statements come despite Taiwan's promise to invest $250 billion in the US as part of a trade deal reached in February.
Although Trump insisted that US policy towards Taiwan has not changed, his comments gave the impression that Xi Jinping had managed to influence the way he views the Taiwan issue. According to Trump, Xi warned him that mishandling the Taiwan issue could lead to conflict between China and the US. The US president added that the Chinese leader had spent most of the state dinner talking about Taiwan.
Trump's statements also suggest a more transactional approach to relations with Taiwan compared to his predecessors, as well as a lower willingness to engage in the island's defense.
The biggest concern in Taipei is the new arms package. In December, Trump approved a record $11 billion package. Before the summit in Beijing, it was reported that he had delayed approval of a second package of about $13 billion, which has already passed Congress.
The US has previously delayed arms packages ahead of meetings with Chinese leaders, but Taiwanese authorities would be seriously concerned if the delay lasted more than a few weeks after the summit.
"I might do it. I might not," Trump told Fox News. "I'm holding it up and it depends on China. It's a very good bargaining chip for us."
Since 1979, the US has maintained that arms sales to Taiwan should not be part of broader negotiations with China, in part because US law requires Washington to help the island defend itself. In 1982, President Ronald Reagan also promised that the US would not negotiate with Beijing on the issue.
Asked about this commitment, Trump replied: "The 1980s are a long way off."
This statement was considered disappointing for the Taiwanese government, which has just approved in parliament an additional defense budget of about $25 billion to finance two American weapons packages, after months of clashes with the opposition.
The main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), is expected to use Trump's comments as an argument that Taiwan can no longer rely entirely on the United States and should seek closer relations with mainland China. The KMT aims to use this message in local elections in November and in the presidential election in 2028.
Equally worrying for the government in Taipei was Trump's statement that the arms supply could encourage President Lai to declare independence.
“They have someone now who wants to become independent,” Trump said. “If the situation remains the way it is, I think China would accept it. But we don’t want someone to say: let’s declare independence because the United States supports us.”
In his response, President Lai reiterated the position that Taiwan is now a de facto sovereign and independent state. The island, he said, “will never be sacrificed or exchanged.”
The question now being asked in Taiwan is whether Donald Trump shares the same stance? / The Economist
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