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China has tried to appear neutral about the conflict in Ukraine, but has repeatedly refused to condemn Moscow's invasion. She has positioned herself as a potential peacemaker, with President Xi Jinping calling on both sides to resume peace talks.
But how likely is a China-Russia alliance?
In an article for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), analyst Sam Etheridge writes that the invasion of Ukraine could force China to choose a "side" between Russia and the West, adding that the West is unlikely to be its choice. before Beijing".
Etheridge notes that both sides have benefited "significantly" from their relationship, and each side "legitimises the other internationally". But according to him, there is "little chance" that different interests will separate the two countries.
" For both countries, the growing economic, diplomatic, ideological and potentially military confrontation with Western powers almost certainly outweighs the long-standing (but declining) historical mistrust. Both sides have learned lessons from their Cold War relationship. Trying to drive a wedge between them will probably fail ," he said.
The analyst predicts that the relationship between the two nations is "likely to deepen," but barriers to a formal alliance still remain. He says the war in Ukraine will probably bring Russia and China "closer together" in the long run, as "strong Western pressure on both looks set to continue".
" Even with the unpredictability of the Ukraine war, the China-Russia relationship will endure. If history suggests anything, it is that the war will probably deepen the relationship in the long term, most likely in some form of formal alliance structure, as each looks to the other for support against perceived Western encirclement," he concluded .
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