FLASH
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Donald Trump has, for the time being, halted military action against Iran, but his aides warn that all options remain open. This statement is always useful to buy time, as are the words of presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, who signaled a preference for a negotiated solution.
This has been said in the past, even on the eve of other clashes. However, this time, Donald had to consider many factors.
A little security
Intelligence agencies, in their briefings, have maintained that the regime remains resolute and united. An attack is unlikely to change things. There is no certainty about the consequences, as the opposition is poorly organized and divided into a thousand factions, with further disagreements. Trump has said he wants to win. Well, there are no guarantees of victory here, and the risk of being drawn into a debilitating conflict is high. Unless, of course, difficult-to-predict scenarios arise.
The Pentagon currently has a strong presence in the Middle East. Thousands of men, a network of bases, stations that spy on and track launchers, a good number of fighters and naval units capable of launching dozens of cruise missiles. Experts say it is a deployment capable of carrying out strikes, possibly including strategic bombers - B-2 and B-52 - but it is inadequate for a wider maneuver. Moreover, the ammunition and anti-missile batteries needed to counter the Pasdaran's retaliation would be limited. These are expensive systems, and many of them are needed to deal with the swarm of launchers.
The 12-day war with Israel would have exhausted stocks, demonstrated the need for large numbers of "interceptors," and revealed that there is no foolproof shield.
The Americans have ordered the aircraft carrier Lincoln to be moved from Asia to the Indian Ocean, where it will arrive in about a week along with other missile ships. The transfer of further equipment from the United States and Europe is possible.
The White House was further swayed by calls, mixed with mediation efforts, from its allies. Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Turkey urged Trump to avoid military initiatives that would increase instability across the region, a fear fueled by national needs and a comprehensive assessment of the situation. All of these are countries that have maintained a committed dialogue with the Islamic Republic to prevent major conflicts.
MISSION
Tel Aviv's stance is also interesting. At least three theories have emerged in the media:
1) The Jewish state apparently avoided encouraging the US to attack because conditions were not favorable and it needed time to improve its defenses.
2) The Israelis, usually interventionists, while acknowledging that the theocracy is going through difficult times, share skepticism about the "political" effects of the attacks.
3) Prime Minister Netanyahu has spoken, through the Russians, to Iran to establish rules of engagement: if you don't attack us, we won't attack you. Yesterday, a new phone conversation with Vladimir Putin and news of an upcoming mission by the head of Mossad to the United States.
Trump's unpredictability remains, a consequence of his "style", but also a way of confusing the situation. Yesterday, the president gave his reconstruction: after thanking Tehran for not hanging 800 prisoners, an action he described as having a significant impact, he declared that no one had convinced him to change his mind./ Corriere della Sera
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