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Erdogan is jealous of Israel and wants nuclear weapons: What does alliance with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia mean?
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's statement, a few weeks before the outbreak of the war in Iran, that if Tehran acquires nuclear weapons "no one else can remain indifferent," as well as his avoidance of directly answering the question of whether Turkey should follow the same path, have reignited the discussion about Ankara's strategic ambitions.
The debate is directly related to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's long-term goal of positioning Turkey as a dominant regional power. In this equation, Israel is considered an actor with nuclear capabilities, while Iran has been close to securing them, creating an environment where the balance of power is increasingly determined by nuclear deterrence.
For decades, Turkey has relied on NATO security guarantees, including the presence of about 50 American B-61 nuclear bombs at Incirlik. This presence has placed Ankara under the Alliance's nuclear umbrella. However, recent developments have begun to undermine this sense of security.
Discussions about the future of NATO, especially in the context of the Trump administration’s policies, as well as the perception of a gradual US withdrawal from the Middle East, have increased concerns in Ankara about the credibility of these guarantees. At the same time, proposals to expand the French nuclear “umbrella” in Europe, which could include Greece, add to Turkey’s strategic sensitivity.
In this climate of uncertainty, Israel's experience and the perception of the "immunity" attributed to nuclear powers, as well as developments in Iran, reinforce the belief that possessing such capabilities constitutes a decisive advantage.
Ankara's decision not to rule out strategic options is linked to a deliberate approach to restore ambiguity as a tool of pressure and negotiation. This signals that in an increasingly unstable international system, even the most extreme options remain on the table.
In parallel, Turkey's geopolitical repositioning, with its rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and the restoration of relations with Egypt, as well as its close partnership with Pakistan, raises questions about the formation of a new regional Sunni axis. In this context, ties with Pakistan, a country with nuclear capabilities, and defense agreements with Riyadh fuel speculation about possible cooperation in this area as well.
Officially, Turkey has not declared an intention to develop nuclear weapons, although Erdogan has hinted at the need to review this policy since 2019. Meanwhile, concrete movements on the ground show a growing interest in capacities related to the nuclear cycle. The visit of Turkish leaders to Niger in 2024 and the securing of an agreement on the extraction of natural resources is also interpreted as an attempt to gain access to uranium.
At the same time, Turkey is intensively developing its civilian nuclear program. The Akkuyu plant, built with Russian assistance, is expected to be operational by 2028, while other projects are planned in Sinop and the Thrace region, with interest from South Korea, China and the United States. These projects create infrastructure, expertise and technical capabilities that can be used for more advanced purposes.
The experience of countries like Iran shows that civilian programs can serve as a basis for later military developments. However, building a nuclear arsenal requires time, advanced technology, and specialized capabilities, including the production of nuclear fuel and the integration of nuclear warheads into missile systems.
Against this backdrop, cooperation with Pakistan is seen as a potentially crucial element, while Turkey's efforts to strengthen its military industry and achieve strategic autonomy remain at the center of its long-term strategy.
Such a development would have profound consequences for regional balances. Israel is expected to strongly oppose any attempt to create a second nuclear power in the region, while a new arms race in the Middle East would become an increasingly likely scenario. / Adapted from "Protothema"
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