FLASH
Shkruar nga Roberto Vivaldelli
41% of Americans fear a civil war could break out in the next five years...
Although it remains a very unlikely scenario, after many conflicts abroad, from 2016 onwards, with the coming to power of Donald Trump, in the United States the hypothesis of a second civil war has been raised once again.
In recent years, in fact, there have been moments of great tension and extreme polarization in the debate: from the Black Lives Matter protests after the killing of George Floyd, to the attack on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021. We have the words of President Joe Biden of who described his opponent Trump as "a danger to democracy", while the tycoon must face a series of criminal trials, which he himself described as a "witch hunt" orchestrated by Biden and his associates in the Department of Justice .
A scenario to which should be added the unprecedented political-institutional clash between Texas and the Republican states against Washington on the issue of immigrants and divisions that are not only related to the political sphere, but above all to the cultural and social, with ongoing battles on school boards and universities between smart conservatives and progressives.
These deep - for now, peaceful - divisions have been discussed in recent years in books as diverse as "The Uncivil Agreement" by Lilliana Mason, "Why We're Polarized" by Ezra Klein, and "The Field of Blood" by Joanne B. Freeman and "Bring" the House of War by Kathleen Beleë.
The film that reignited the debate
Even cinema has recently hinted at a future and possible civil war. Civil War – a film starring Kirsten Dunst as a war reporter that grossed more than $100 million at the worldwide box office – from writer-director Alex Garland breaks down the taboo of an unimaginable civil war by depicting an America of the future , torn apart by family conflict and militia violence, with an authoritarian leader in the White House, a coup attempt, and Americans shooting each other in the streets. In the film, in fact, Texas and California are allied in a hypothetical and unlikely "western front" against the federal government, a secession to which Florida is added. The president, a third-term authoritarian played by Nick Offerman, promises to crush the rebels and launches drone strikes against his own citizens, plunging the country into poverty and lawlessness.
Rasmussen's "companion" poll
There is so much talk of a catastrophic prospect of this kind that Americans have come to believe that it is a plausible hypothesis. According to a "companion" poll by Rasmussen Reports, although most respondents say they are skeptical of this eventuality (49%), 41% of Americans fear that a civil war could break out in the next five years, including 16% who say the hypothesis is "highly likely" in the same time period. 10% say they are uncertain about the future, but it is a fact that "the possibility that America could soon face another civil war is not too far-fetched for many voters," as Rasmussen pollsters noted. 37% also believe a new civil war is more likely if President Joe Biden wins this year's election, while 25% think the opposite is more likely if former President Donald Trump prevails.
Finally, 30% say that winning this year's election will not make much difference to the likelihood of civil war. But Rasmussen's poll is not the only one that confirms the fears of Americans: as reported by the Economist, already in 2022 YouGov found that 43% of Americans believed that a civil war was "at least somewhat possible". Indeed, what would happen in the unlikely hypothesis that Donald Trump is convicted in one of the trials in which he is implicated before the presidential election in November? How would his supporters react? In an interview with CNN, Joe Biden said that his Republican rival "will not accept" the result of the vote, as he did in 2020. "He may not accept the result of the election, I assure you he will not accept it" , said the American president. Statements that say a lot about an increasingly uncertain democracy. / Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Inside Over"
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