FLASH
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A majority of Russians (55%) expect the war in Ukraine to end in 2026. This, according to the results of a poll by the government-affiliated Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), is a sign that the Kremlin may be testing the public's reaction to a possible peace deal as diplomatic efforts to end the conflict intensify.
Presenting the survey results, VTsIOM Deputy Director Mikhail Mamonov said that 70% of the 1,600 respondents believe that 2026 will be a more “successful” year for Russia than 2025, while 55% believe that the hope for a better year is linked to a possible end to the war in Ukraine, which Russia calls a “special military operation.”
"The main reason for optimism is the possible completion of the special military operation and the achievement of the declared goals, in line with the national interests outlined by the president," Mamonov said during the presentation of the survey results.
In previous polls, presented at the end of the year, VTsIOM highlighted the unification of Russian society around President Vladimir Putin and his military goals in Ukraine, but had not presented data on the percentage of Russians who expect the war to end.
The war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, is approaching its fifth year, but the true level of fatigue in Russian public opinion it has caused is difficult to capture due to strict state control of freedom of expression.
Mamonov sees the Russian military's ongoing offensive in Ukraine, the US's reluctance to finance Ukraine, and the European Union's inability to fully replace the United States economically and militarily as the main factors behind the prospects for a final peace agreement.
After the end of military hostilities, he added, the reintegration of "military special operations" veterans into society and the reconstruction of Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine, as well as Russian border areas, are considered top priorities.
About two-thirds of Russians support peace talks, the highest percentage since the start of the war, according to the independent polling company Levada, which has been labeled a "foreign agent" under Russian law during the conflict.
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