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A possible "El Niño" phenomenon is reviving concerns about a significant increase in global temperatures and worsening weather conditions on a global scale.
According to data published by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 62% probability that this climate phenomenon will develop during the summer months. However, scientists emphasize that at this stage of the year, predictions remain uncertain.
The signals supporting this scenario are related to the accumulation of heat in the deep ocean layers and the weakening of the trade winds, factors that usually precede the formation of El Niño. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center estimates that, if the phenomenon develops, there is about a one in three chance that it will be strong during the period October-December 2026, while emphasizing that "the potential strength remains highly uncertain."
El Niño and La Niña are two opposite phases of the same climate system in the Pacific Ocean. While La Niña brings cooling of sea surface temperatures due to the rise of cold waters from the depths, El Niño is characterized by the return of warm waters towards the coasts of South America, increasing global temperatures.
The consequences of this phenomenon can be far-reaching. El Niño is often associated with more intense heat waves and heavier rainfall, as every 1°C increase in air temperature allows the atmosphere to hold about 7% more moisture.
Under these conditions, experts warn of an increased risk of flooding and extreme weather phenomena, while developments in the coming months will be crucial in understanding the intensity of this climate cycle.
What are El Nino and La Nina?
El Nino and La Nina are two opposing climates in the Pacific Ocean that affect weather around the world.
The trade winds in the Pacific tend to blow from east to west, pushing warm surface waters toward the western Pacific. El Niño occurs when these winds weaken or reverse, making the waters in the eastern Pacific, off the coast of the Americas, warmer than normal.
During La Nina periods, east-to-west trade winds become stronger, pushing warm waters further west toward the coasts of Australia and Southeast Asia. This causes cold water to “lift” or rise from the ocean floor, making sea surface temperatures lower on average, especially in the Americas.
Both El Nino and La Nina can affect weather around the world. Although each episode is different, La Nina is associated with wetter-than-normal conditions in some parts of the world, such as northern Australia, southeast Africa, and northern Brazil. It can also increase the likelihood of flooding in some regions and cause a more intense hurricane season.
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