FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
What a monumental miscalculation...
Nearly three months after America broke off talks with Iran by starting a war, diplomats from both countries are returning to Switzerland, in what is effectively a shocking admission of failure by the US. There is a humiliating sense of diplomatic deja vu for Americans following the Memorandum of Understanding agreement just signed by Iran and the US.
In February, US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were holding talks with the Iranians in Geneva, which were showing some promising results. However, Donald Trump was convinced that he could achieve more through military force than diplomacy.
What a monumental error in calculation.
Trump's war has cost America alone over $30 billion in losses and military spending. The damage done to America's reputation as the world's undisputed military superpower is incalculable.
Iran has suffered billions of dollars worth of damage and the loss of thousands of lives, including at least 120 children whose elementary school was bombed on the first day by the US, which, shamefully, still does not have the courage to admit the fact.
The war has been politically disastrous for Israel. Its standing in the US has been damaged because, rightly or wrongly, many Americans blame it for leading President Trump into a bad adventure that all his predecessors wisely avoided.
But did the decision to torpedo the talks in February and attack Iran instead lead to a better diplomatic proposal?
Is the deal being offered now better than what was on the table when American and Iranian officials last met on the shores of Lake Geneva?
Absolutely not. The only concrete achievement is the reopening of a strategic waterway, the Strait of Hormuz, which was closed only during the war. It should be noted that the Strait was fully open when the diplomats last met here.
In February, on the key nuclear issue, talks were making some progress according to Omani and British observers, and as a result, America was weighing easing sanctions.
The current deal turns things around. It proposes some sanctions relief for Iran even before progress is made on the nuclear issue. Iran will receive exemptions to sell its oil and increase its revenues from the outset.
As analysts have pointed out, diplomacy with Iran before the war was based on a carefully calibrated combination of carrot and stick. This new Memorandum of Understanding offers Iran carrots from the start, with only the threat of a stick in the future.
President Trump went to war believing that military force would deliver more than diplomacy had promised, but it failed to deliver.
The war destroyed most of the Iranians' conventional military, but it also gave them a much more powerful weapon, control of the Strait of Hormuz, which until now had been only theoretical.
As diplomacy resumes, Iran has more leverage this time. The result is a strategic defeat for the US and Israel and a terrible humiliation, yet Trump supporters are creatively trying to put lipstick on their pig./ Adapted from “Pamphlet” by “SkyNews”
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