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Finding a successor to President Ebrahim Raisi has troubled the political and clerical classes in Iran, as no possible name is considered as loyal as he is to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Analysts say that there may be a moderate candidate, but the likelihood is that a representative of the hard line from the ranks of the clergy will run.
After the tragic death of the president in the air accident, Iran is facing serious difficulties to find his replacement. Raisi's death has also had long-term implications for clerical leaders. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appointed the first vice-president Mohammad Mokhber as interim president in office until elections are held a day ago. He will remain in this position until June 22, when the presidential elections are scheduled.
President Raisi, the foreign minister and 7 other people, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, when the helicopter they were traveling in crashed in northwestern Iran on May 19. Speaking to the nation, before Raisi's death was confirmed, Khamenei said that "the Iranian people should not worry, there will be no obstacles in the work of the country." But the death of the ultraconservative Raisi poses a challenge to the hard-line politicians of the Islamic Republic, who strengthened their power after the spring parliamentary elections.
The long process of appointing suitable presidential candidates, subject to investigation and approval by the Guard Council, will take place in less than two months. Raisi benefited from the mass disqualification of reformist and moderate candidates when he won the presidential election in 2021. As a carefully chosen candidate, since he would not pose a threat to Khamenei, he won more than 72 percent of the vote in the presidential election, where turnout was the lowest since the Islamic Republic was founded in 1979.
Middle Eastern experts say that Supreme Leader Khamenei may use the opportunity to "rehabilitate" the "marginalized" former Speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani, who was banned from running against Rais in 2021, but "has been supportive loyal to the system". These elections are also seen as an opportunity to regulate relations with members of the former moderate president Hassan Rohani's camp.
In 2021, Raisi defeated Mohsen Rezaee, a senior officer in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as Abdolnaser Hemmati, a banker who was the only moderate candidate in the race. But if a hard-line candidate is chosen from among the clerical leaders, it would show that "the priorities are unity, conservative consolidation and making sure that the transition...continues to be a priority." Raisi's death leaves a gaping hole in Iran's efforts to choose the next supreme leader as well, as he was seen as Khamenei's predecessor. The supreme leader in Iran makes all decisions about the country's domestic and foreign policies.
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