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The exchange rate between the Euro and the Lek is moving downward again this week. According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the Euro was exchanged on Wednesday at 103.21 ALL. The exchange rate has fallen by approximately 1.2 ALL since last Thursday, when the last significant increase was recorded, following the signals given by the Bank of Albania.
Last week, Governor Gent Sejko, announced the intervention of the Bank of Albania to curb the appreciation of the Lek in the foreign exchange rate. Following this, the Bank of Albania formalized the increase of foreign exchange purchases planned this year, to a new limit of 300 million euros, from 220 million euros which was the previous limit.
The purchases of the Bank of Albania are carried out through programmed auctions and officially do not aim to intervene in the exchange rate, but to increase the foreign exchange reserve. However, seeing the rapid strengthening of the lek this year, the Bank of Albania is using this mechanism to attract some of the large inflows of foreign currency to the market.
However, according to experts, the additional amount of about 80 million euros that will be purchased by the Bank of Albania is not likely to bring about significant changes in exchange rate ratios. Last week, the Bank of Albania bought 18 million euros, but nevertheless the downward trend of the exchange rate has continued.
Agents think that foreign currency inflows this year are quite large, mainly due to the record number of foreign tourists visiting Albania this year. On the other hand, the slower credit growth and the tightening fiscal policy pursued by the Albanian government favor the strengthening of the lek.
However, at the moment the exchange rate seems a little more stabilized and trading margins have decreased somewhat. This means that uncertainty among market players has eased somewhat. The exchange rate of other currencies has also fallen slightly this week, but remains at slightly higher levels compared to the historical minimum levels that were touched around July 20, following the decline of the Euro exchange rate.
Experts think that during this period it is natural for Leku to remain in strong positions. The seasonal effect may begin to fade in the last days of August, although the tourist season is showing a tendency to expand in time.
After autumn, it can be understood whether the Euro can partially regain ground, although for this year the projections generally remain in favor of the strong lek. The only predictable factors that could increase the demand for the euro could be electricity imports, especially in the event of a lack of rainfall in the fall, or a stronger intervention by the Bank of Albania to withdraw the currency from the market./Monitor
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