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The International Monetary Fund officially admitted for the first time that the rapid strengthening of the lek during the past year is not fully explained by economic factors.
"The rapid appreciation of the lek since last year is not fully explained by the economic fundamentals, increasing the risk of an unexpected return," the IMF declares in the latest assessment report for the Albanian economy.
According to the fund's experts, the exchange rate between the lek and the euro was within the levels suggested by economic factors until the end of 2022. But in 2023, the strengthening of the national currency was no longer explained by the strength of the Albanian economy. This unusual situation, according to the IMF, forced the Bank of Albania to quickly intervene in the market.
"BSH made two unplanned interventions during the summer to calm fluctuations and rule out the emergence of disorderly market conditions," says the IMF.
The fund does not explain what are the factors beyond the economic ones, which led to the strengthening of the lek by 11 percent against the euro during the last year, but it is more concerned that this situation may be reversed, that is, that the lek starts to depreciate to go to the balance suggested by economic factors. According to the IMF, this could bring risks to the country's financial system.
This is the first time that the IMF publicly admits that the exchange rate in the Albanian economy has been influenced by other causes beyond those of the legal economy. Previously, the drastic strengthening of the lek against the euro was considered by experts and the opposition as a clear indicator of the influx of drug-related euros into the Albanian economy. These are seen to be financing the unstoppable expansion of the construction sector by raising prices at a rapid pace.
Although the IMF does not explicitly warn of risk in the construction sector, the IMF is concerned about the lack of data in this sector.
"Data gaps on real estate and construction activities prevent a full assessment of possible macro-financial linkages. Enhanced supervision of real estate and the impact of the construction sector on financial stability are essential," the report states./ Kapitali
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