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Shkruar nga Miljan Vesovic
Vucic will never act constructively and will not respect the Ohrid Agreement for the solution of the Kosovo issue. He will always destabilize the region on behalf of Russia and China...
The Serbian authoritarian president, Aleksandar Vucic, gave a "historic" speech to the nation yesterday, regarding Kosovo. He presented the measures that Serbia intends to take. This gives us a good opportunity to once again try to decipher his real intentions in the region.
There are clear indications that the Serbian plan to attack Kosovo militarily and occupy the north by force has been ready for a long time. Reliable information indicated that the Serbian regime intended to act on that plan by the end of this year.
The calculation was that the US would be distracted by the election and the (expected) post-election chaos. Therefore, NATO forces in Kosovo would not defend the territory with Serbian population and would simply withdraw to defend (if necessary) the territory with Albanian population. This, in turn, would lead to the de facto division of Kosovo.
However, it seems increasingly likely that CIA Director Burns' recent visit to Belgrade resulted in strong warnings to Vucic that the US knows what he has been up to and that the US and NATO response -s, in case of a new war in Kosovo-Balkans, it would be quick and decisive. This despite the possible political instability in the US after the presidential elections. Therefore, Vucic changed his position. It seemed clear yesterday that he was trying too hard to clarify that Serbia would never go to war to solve the Kosovo issue.
Vucic is supporting US disinterest in the region. He is calculating that as long as there is no war, everything else he does, in Kosovo and elsewhere, is permissible and will be met with mild reaction from the US, EU and NATO.
He is also being supported by his old friends, Macron and Scholz. Macron's France has just completed a $3 billion sale of military equipment to Serbia. Scholz's Germany is very interested in a stable future supply of lithium from Serbian mines.
Vucic is also supported by Biden's ambassador to Belgrade, Hill, who sometimes acts and behaves more like a casual Serbian lobbyist in DC than the person responsible for protecting US interests in Belgrade. Vucic hopes that all these people will advocate for a soft approach towards Serbia. The sad thing is, he might be right.
However, to continue Serbia's role as the main destabilizer in the Balkans on behalf of Russia and China, Vucic will position Serbia as a bulwark against US and EU interests in the region. That is why he is strengthening, not dismantling the parallel Serbian institutions in the North of Kosovo.
He announced that Serbian prosecutors will indict the leaders of the Kosovo agencies - this is, of course, a prelude to an international arrest warrant. He made the decision that Serbia will continue to finance all Serbian activities in northern Kosovo (including, of course, terrorist networks led by Radojicic, etc.). He explicitly rejected the possibility of mutual recognition and Kosovo's membership in international organizations "for many decades".
All this means two things: Firstly, as already said, the continuation of destabilizing policies and secondly and most importantly, the open abandonment of Serbia's aspirations in the EU, which depend on the successful solution of the Kosovo issue , based on compliance with the Ohrid Agreement.
Therefore, Vučić's message to the West is as follows - they threatened him, and he is not strong enough to do what he really wants (to attack Kosovo militarily). But even though it will not do so, it will never fulfill the strategic goals of the US, the EU and NATO in the region. He will never turn Serbia towards the EU and the West. After that, he may also accept Putin's invitation to personally participate in the BRICS summit. He will never act constructively and will not respect the Ohrid Agreement for the solution of the Kosovo issue. He will always destabilize the region in the name of Russia and China and in accordance with Serbian nationalist goals. However, he will do so through peaceful and hybrid warfare, not open warfare. At least for now. And he says to the west - you will be fine with everyone, because you only care about peace in the region and nothing else.
With this mindset of Vucic, it is expected that the Serbian hybrid war against Kosovo, Bosnia, Montenegro and North Macedonia will intensify. Beware of potential "hybrid" trouble in Montenegro, where Serb nationalists/pro-Russian cadres have infiltrated all branches of government and where municipalities under the control of pro-Serb politicians are openly acting as part of Serbia.
Also watch out for North Macedonia, where the newly installed pro-Serbian and pro-Russian Government could alienate the country from the West, which, in turn, could cause renewed tension and civil unrest between Macedonians and Albanians. Albanians in North Macedonia may also view the country's pro-Russian turn as a direct attack on their ethnic interests. This given their strong pro-American and pro-Western orientation. This could usher in "Season 2" of the ethnic conflict resolved by the original Ohrid Agreement - the one in 2001.
And of course, beware of Bosnia, where the possible secession of Republika Srpska is the "sword of Damocles" that hangs over the security and stability of not only that country, but the entire Western Balkans.
Vucic also hopes that Donald Trump will win the US elections. Republican politicians and foreign policy experts in general are excellent at recognizing Serbia's destabilizing role in the Western Balkans. However, Vucic thinks that the influence of one of the most prominent Serbian lobbyists in Washington, Richard Grenell, will prevail and that Trump will look favorably on Serbia.
If Kamala Harris wins, Vucic is supporting the disinterest and continuation of the policy of the Biden administration towards the Western Balkans. This policy is focused on maintaining peace and stability at all costs. In practice, it means being soft on Serbia and acting only when peace is directly and clearly threatened. The fragile peace in the region still persists. However, the situation on the ground worsens every day and Russian and Chinese interests and positions are strengthening. This is Vucic's last goal in the long game. /Adapted "Pamphlet" from " Antena M "
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