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The only analogy, or rather a message from the Hungarian case is this: when there is a good alternative, nothing can stop the opposition from winning. From this point of view, the task of the parties of the opposition spectrum, first of all the Democratic Party as their largest, is to build the alternative.
The next political elections are far away. But they are just around the corner for an opposition in crisis, frustrated by successive defeats since 2013. Always, if it has a clear objective to gain the great power of the majority and not to recycle chronic losers at its head, complacent with the small power of the minority.
Many events may happen by then. But they may not. As we often say, in politics, events are revealed as they happen. This does not mean that political developments are beyond prediction. There are ways and ways to see the future not in the form of a fortune. Yesterday, the present, experiences, precedents, analogies, laws are “magic mirrors” to predict in general terms what is expected to happen in a year, two years, and much more.
The history of the future is written by the history of the past, according to the famous French essayist, Jacques Attali. Forecasting is aided by periodic polls, which photograph the daily subtle movements of popular approval for parties and their leaders. The poll chart does not recognize the immediate collapse of one party and the Pindaric flights of the other. As a rule, the battle between them is like a long tug of war. With the exception of exceptional cases that imply a collapse of the economy, an explosion of inflation, a flight of prices due to the government, etc.
All these indicators do not make you optimistic today that we will have a two-step rotation of power: the local one after one year and the parliamentary one after three years. The sensational victory of Petër Maygar in Hungary that uprooted the Viktor Urban regime from power after four terms finds no equivalent in today's political reality in Albania. The only analogy, or rather a message from the Hungarian case is this: when there is a good alternative, nothing can stop the victory of the opposition.
From this point of view, the task of the opposition parties, first of all the Democratic Party as their largest, is to build an alternative. It seems like a big word, but we can simplify it without taking anything away from its meaning. The alternative is leadership, the leader. The Hungarian example clearly showed us this.
In our case, we do not have such a political reality that allows the emergence of an all-encompassing leader over the opposition desolation. The problem here is more complicated. The largest opposition party, the DP, together with the coalition's allied parties, are party-names of their eternal leaders. The DP is not so big as to threaten the majority, but not so small as to call into question its primacy in the opposition. Despite the fact that it has been shrinking, according to the polls of the expert Eduard Zaloshnja, who - we must repeat - has correctly found the results of the elections for about two decades, within the margin of error.
The Democratic Party could simply solve the problem of resurgence by withdrawing Berisha to pave the way for a new leader emerging through a competitive, free, fair and equal electoral process. Such a leader, supported without reservation by Berisha after winning, would unite, grow and make the Party and the entire opposition victorious.
But as it is seen, Berisha has no intention of taking a step back, even if it violates the statute he himself approved. His determination to remain at the head of the DP until the very end, preventing rival candidates not piloted by him, no longer seems to be a matter of political ambition, but of the need to defend himself before the courts, and of his relationship with posterity.
In these conditions, appeals to withdraw or allow free competition begin to carry futility, ignoring the fear and distress of others, to say the least. The only thing left is: for Berisha, as he is, someone who does not win, but without whom, in the position he holds, the opposition cannot win today, to commit to a framework of conditions and solutions that would enable the opposition electorate to be brought to the elections with as little fuss as possible. Which is today numerically larger than the pro-government electorate, but needs to express itself politically in entities different from the unrenovated DP.
In this context, Berisha's proposal for the full opening of the lists and for the national majoritarian is a positive step. This proposal must be strongly defended at the reform table. With the flexibility that compromises require, that is, by yielding to reasonable demands of the other side.
There is much to be done to motivate opposition voters. The main one, in my opinion, remains the institutionalization of the plural opposition within the framework of the common goal that is the rotation of power, co-government. One model is the Italian center-right, where four parties, “Brothers of Italy”, “Forca Italia”, “Lega Nord” and “We, the Moderates” competed separately within the framework of a principled agreement for co-government and an ethical framework that ensures the management of diversities, frictions and incompatibilities that should not be suppressed, but articulated. The counting of their votes made the majority that governs Italy.
Oppositionism in our country today is a mosaic of factions of democrats inside and outside the DP. There are, however, small political entities that share the same goal as the big party, but have their own identity. All this diversity achieves nothing if everyone does not see beyond their own nose. But it can grow within the framework of a plural opposition where the DP is committed to respecting the spaces of diversity, to supporting the reflection of the interests of the entities of this spectrum in the electoral code, to protecting their votes. In exchange, the entities in question are committed and keep their commitments.
The solution to defeating the current majority does not come from unification within a single list. We are not in 2005. Mechanical mergers do not enable the mechanical transfer of anti-establishment votes to a single entity. The counting of the plural opposition where whoever collects their own votes has a chance.
Harrojeni sa te jete CAR BERISHA dhe kur e them une