FLASH
Shkruar nga Eduard Zaloshnja
Rama seems to have already started thinking about the 800,000 votes of 2025, knowing that they can be translated into 84 parliamentary mandates, which ensure votes in the Assembly for laws that are approved only with at least 3/5 of the votes.
Rama's mayoral candidates received almost 800,000 valid votes on May 14, strongly supported on the ground by SP and PSD. Two years ago, the candidates for deputies of these two parties received something over 800 thousand valid votes, thus securing 77 parliamentary mandates. If these two parties receive the same 800 thousand valid votes after two years, they can secure 84 parliamentary mandates, because it seems that the various opposition parties have a common ceiling of around 600 thousand votes (the candidates of Berisha and Meta for mayors received only 500 thousand vote on May 14).
Rama seems to have already started thinking about the 800,000 votes of 2025, knowing that they can be translated into 84 parliamentary mandates, which ensure votes in the Assembly for laws that are approved only with at least 3/5 of the votes.
In order to preserve the 800,000 votes until 2025, Rama needs the left-wing voters who will die in these two years to be replaced by young people who did not vote on May 14 (based on the mortality coefficients, about 20,000 socialist and social democratic voters expected to die by June 2025). The new policies that Rama is presenting for the activation of youth in the profitable digital business, as well as scholarships for students of various branches, seem to be aimed at enticing young people to vote after two years for the government that is taking care of them...
In order to maintain the 800,000 votes until 2025, Rama also needs as few left-wing voters as possible to be dissatisfied with the central and local socialist government. It is not for nothing that he prefaced this discontent during the thanksgiving tour he made across the country after May 14, saying that he himself is dissatisfied with the socialist central and local government to this day and expects more in the years to come.
Rama's crackdown on mortgages and the move of all its services online to eliminate the petty corruption of mortgage officers seems to aim for strong chemotherapy against a cancer that has angered many citizens to this day. Among them, many of the 800,000 socialist and social democratic voters...
Also, Rama's message that he will not protect any high official who falls into SPAK's nets, gives a clear message to high socialist officials that they should think carefully before dipping their fingers in the honey of public money. By giving this message, he gains points in the opinion of ordinary socialist and social democratic voters.
It is not known how the events will flow until June 2025, but the election results from 2013 onwards show us that PS+PSD+etc have remained stable at the level of 800 thousand votes. And if they reach this level in 2025, the chances are high that the Rama government will be approved with 84 votes in 2025. But even if it is approved with fewer votes, 84 can be filled for qualified laws with the help of a few deputies of small parties.
Who can enter the parliament, if completely open lists of candidates for deputies are allowed...
Note: 800,000 votes will not be enough for Rama if practical opportunities are created for a massive voting participation of 1.5 million voters who are in exile. But chances are that such practical opportunities will not arise within two years...
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