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History shows that overthrowing a prime minister requires more than rumors...
A familiar atmosphere of tension is returning to Westminster.
Whenever the mood within parties becomes rebellious, voices emerge about "men in gray suits," invisible figures who, according to British political legend, enter Downing Street to tell the leader that his time is up.
This time, Sir Keir Starmer is at the centre of the speculation. However, British history suggests that such “ghost” groups rarely materialise. If a leader is toppled, it usually happens openly and through a coordinated move, not through rumours.
Rebel MPs must choose their timing carefully. A heavy defeat in a local election or a disappointing result in a by-election can create favorable ground. But the ouster of a leader mid-term brings pressure for a general election, which the party could lose. On the other hand, waiting too long can make the change worthless in the eyes of the public. Political scientists call this the “Goldilocks problem”: not too early, not too late.
Prime ministers are often focused on running the country and may not perceive danger in time. Margaret Thatcher in 1990 and Boris Johnson in 2022 learned this the hard way. Even if they win a vote of confidence, they can emerge politically wounded. A leader may survive technically but be fatally weakened.
A crisis usually begins with a high-profile resignation. Geoffrey Howe’s resignation hastened Thatcher’s end; Rishi Sunak’s contributed to Johnson’s departure. But a single resignation is rarely enough. It must be followed by a wave of departures that creates a sense of loss of control.
Yet struggling leaders are not defenseless. They control the Downing Street apparatus, hold positions and titles, and can mobilize support quickly. Loyalty is often rewarded, while a failed rebellion can permanently damage an MP’s career. Moreover, even if Starmer were to be ousted, no one can guarantee that the successor would be stronger or more popular. The two-stage system for choosing the leader, in which the party membership has the final say, makes the outcome unpredictable and increases reluctance to act.
History shows that when a party becomes convinced that its leader has become an electoral burden, the end can come quickly. From a routine speech in the morning to an announcement of resignation in the evening, the distance can be very short. In British politics, downfalls often come suddenly and with procedural brutality: a statement in Downing Street, a visit to the King, and then silence.
Until then, the “men in grey suits” remain more myth than reality. In Westminster, change of leaders comes not from ghosts but from cold political calculations and the moment when the fear of losing becomes greater than the fear of the unknown. / Adapted from “The Economist”
Një shtytje nga jashtë dhe mbaroi puna.
Në kontekstin e Shqipërisë për të larguar kryeministrin, duhet që të ketë opozitë. Fatkeqësisht, ajo drejtohet nga një halldup kapadai me halle personale. Largimi i Rrumpallës i hap rrugë rrotacionit në Shqipëri. Njerëzit janë të lodhur me piktorin, por e pranojnë nga halli se është alternativë pak më e mirë se Bajrakari i maleve.
Nuk ka ndryshim per te mire ne Shqiperi per aq kohe sa populli te mos braktis Salehun Ramutin dhe militantet e tyre. Rruga eshte i vetmi mjet per popullin te beje ndryshimin, por jo me Saheun