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Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Security expert Ilir Kulla, speaking about the negotiations between the US and Iran, said that both sides are imposing extreme and practically unachievable conditions on each other. Speaking on the show “Të Pashoj”, on the “Pamphlet” YouTube channel, Kulla added that the conflict in the Middle East has reached a point where defeat is no longer an option for any of the three main protagonists, the US, Iran, Israel.
According to him, for Israel, this conflict has existential dimensions. An eventual defeat would not be simply a military defeat, but a real threat to the extinction of the state. On the other hand, Kulla added that the United States of America risks losing much more than a battle. A failure to emerge victorious against Iran would cause a "historical devaluation" of its position in the most strategically important region of the world.
Kulla said that for Iran, the defeat would be tantamount to its end as a state in the form it is known today. A military defeat would not only threaten the survival of the current regime or the Shiite community, but would also initiate a process of disintegration of the Iranian state itself. A country that has not changed its borders for 500 years would face the risk of territorial, demographic and ethno-religious fragmentation. For Tehran, this is a fight to preserve the integrity and existence of the nation.
He added that in this complex situation, where neither side can afford to lose, a lasting peace seems a distant goal. The maximum result that can currently be achieved is a temporary ceasefire, but even for this, neither side shows any real desire, despite public statements. Kulla emphasized that the US failure to show dominance could also open Pandora's box, pushing regional allies such as Turkey and Arab countries to seek nuclear weapons as a guarantee of their security.
Excerpt from the interview:
-What about Iran's six conditions, what did you think? They were also strong. Legal change for the Strait of Hormuz, compensation for Iran, so that this conflict does not happen again.
Ilir Kulla: Të dyja palët, të dyja palët po vënë kushte të parealizueshme. po vënë kushte ekstreme, në mënyrë që të kenë një, një të mesme të barabartë. Të bëj një analizë. Pse asnjë nga tre shtetet nuk mund të humbasë këtë luftë? Izraeli nuk mund ta humbasë sepse Izraeli rrezikon zhdukjen. Nga bregu perëndimor deri në detin Mesdhe është vetëm 9 km, në zonën e Çezarias. Dhe Izraeli e ka shumë qartë, që nëse Izraeli del humbës nga kjo luftë ku ka hyrë, jo vetëm që s'mund të ndryshojë dot ato kufijtë nga lumi në, nga lumenjtë në Mesdhe që thotë Bibla e vjetër e hala, por rrezikon realisht zhdukjen. Nëse do të ketë një humbje të një lufte e cila ka, ka filluar tashmë prej gati tre vitesh, dy vjet e gjysmë. Ëh, në anën tjetër, SHBA-ja, nëse nuk fiton këtë luftë, sepse prandaj i duhet të gjejë një, një të mesme diku, SHBA-ja rrezikon që për herë të parë ëh aleatët historikë të SHBA-së në rajon, arabët, pra aleatët e gjirit, të cilët janë edhe partnerët kryesorë ekonomikë të SHBA-së, rrezikon të thonë, po mirë atëherë kur ti nuk fitoke dot kundër Iranit, çfarë na duheshe? Pse duhet të vazhdojmë të blejmë borxhin e jashtëm amerikan edhe të jemi në, në të njëjtën linjë?
- Po pra po, e qartë është kjo pjesë.
Ilir Kulla : So the US risks, as I say, its historical devaluation of this region. Something that it has achieved with many wars, with great effort, over many decades. So, what would balance this? So, the Abrahamic agreements, for which much work was done in Trump's first term, would no longer be enough. But on the other hand, this time, the Arabs, perhaps Turkey too, can rightly say, then, as long as Israel has the right to nuclear defense, why shouldn't we also have this right to nuclear defense? When Iran proved so strong that the US cannot win with Iran. So the US risks not only its relations with Iran, which are what they are, which is at war, but it risks above all the balances with its historical allies. So with those who provide it with oil, gas, the role. So, the US has entered a war that it cannot lose. Because it is bound to lose once and for all, one of the most important regions in the world. And on the other hand, Iran cannot lose. Because if Iran loses this war, Iran will no longer exist, at least not as we have known it. So, the largest state in that region, which has not changed its borders for 500 years, and is then forced to move towards a process of disintegration. So it is not just a question of the survival of the regime. It is a question or a question of the survival of the Shiites. It is a question of the survival of Iran itself. As a state, as a territory, as a geography, as a demographic, as an ethno-religious composition. That is why this issue is so complex, that the maximum result that can be reached at this moment, peace no no, is a ceasefire. Which I currently see in the desire of none of the three parties. What they say verbally is one thing and what they do is another. As Henry Kissinger said, in diplomacy, it's not the fault of the one who lies, but of the one who believes you.
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