FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Maybe the Americans are exaggerating with the warnings of war between Israel and Iran?!
The Iranian threat against Israel is "credible and concrete," the White House said, adding to the chorus of alarm. Constant warnings at a crossroads of security measures and invitations from many governments to avoid the region.
Tehran can do much, little or nothing by contenting itself with rising tensions while receiving earnest pleas for moderation. But this, of course, does not exclude that the mullahs will have to react on the ground to questions of "revolutionary prestige" - their friends are watching - and also because of the wound (the raid in Damascus in which Mohamed Reza Zahedi, representative of top of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard: an attack for which Israel has never claimed responsibility) was profound. Certainly not the only one, but the last of a thousand cuts.
On the contrary, many sources reiterate that Iran is careful to avoid a direct conflict with Israel or even the United States.
Diplomats and experts have examined every scenario, "played" by the two contenders for domestic and international purposes.
Let's look at the different options on the table.
Hypothesis 1: Iran attacks Israeli military bases with kamikaze drones and missiles
Thesis number 1: a massive action with kamikaze drones and long-range missiles, focused on military sites. The base at Mount Meron on the border with Lebanon, an important hub, could be one of the targets. Or the positions in the Golan Heights. The "mob" incursion would serve to overcome the well-tested Israeli anti-aircraft shield.
Hypothesis 2: Iran launches a targeted attack with surface-to-air missiles
Thesis 2: a targeted attack by surface-to-surface missiles, limited. A repeat of what Pasdaran did in January against an alleged Mossad "installation" in Erbil (Iraqi Kurdistan), in Idlib (Syria) where rebel/ISIS positions were hit, and in Pakistan against Baloch separatists.
Guardians have in their arsenal a good number of vectors with which to hit the opponent, on land and at sea. Several times ships connected to Tel Aviv, directly or indirectly, have been subjected to strikes in distant waters.
Hypothesis 3 : Iran forces its allies to retaliate
Thesis #3: Revenge is left to the militias, a group assembled by the Axis of Resistance that includes Iraqi, Syrian, Lebanese, Palestinian, Afghan and Yemeni (Houthis) groups.
Hypothesis 4: Iran strikes an Israeli diplomatic post abroad
Thesis number 4: a coup against a diplomatic headquarters of the Jewish state, an objective similar to the one achieved by Israel in Damascus by the elimination of numerous officers. However, an operation that would involve a terrorist election. In this regard, serious precedents that have occurred in Argentina are cited, such as the massacres of the Israeli embassy (1992, 29 dead) and the headquarters of the Jewish Association (1994, 85 victims). Only yesterday, an Argentine court decided that the massacres were carried out by the Shiite terrorists of Hezbollah on the orders of Iran. Iranians and Lebanese extremists have always been considered the main culprits, but the investigation was hampered by misdirection, false testimony, tragic events, such as the alleged suicide (or murder) of Judge Nisman, one of the most ardent supporters of the Islamic regime's guilt. A story as tragic as it is opaque, with often unclear characters. / Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Corriera Della Sera"
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