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The ongoing war with Iran has caused oil prices to rise significantly, a development that is expected to also increase fuel costs for airlines and potentially ticket prices for travelers around the world.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told CNBC that the impact on ticket prices could be felt quickly.
Crude oil prices rose after the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, reaching around $100 a barrel on Thursday. That was the first level above $100 in nearly four years, before prices closed the week slightly lower, around $99 a barrel.
The conflict has also caused major operational consequences for aviation in the region. According to aviation analysis company Cirium, nearly 50,000 flights have been canceled since February 28.
Rob Britton, a professor of marketing at the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University and a former executive at American Airlines, told CNN that oil supplies have been only slightly affected so far, but prices have risen significantly.
" If fuel prices remain high, fares will increase. There's no mystery here ," he said, adding that with a simple calculation, ticket prices could increase almost in proportion to the cost of fuel.
After labor costs, jet fuel is the largest expense for airlines, typically accounting for 20–30% of total expenses, depending on the price of oil.
Britton pointed out that historically airlines react quickly by raising fares when fuel prices rise.
However, according to Zach Griff, author of the aviation newsletter From the Tray Table, airlines often have a hard time fully transferring these costs to passengers.
He stressed that ticket prices depend on many factors beyond the cost of fuel, while travel demand remains the main element that determines how much airlines can increase prices.
If inflation or rising unemployment prompt business and leisure travelers to curtail their plans this summer, airlines may have less room to raise fares, despite rising costs.
Even Southwest Airlines' annual report for 2025 warns that fuel prices can be highly volatile and unpredictable, and even small changes in the market can significantly affect the profitability of airlines.
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