FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The world today is much more dangerous than it was a few years ago, which has brought the United Kingdom closer to strategic allies.
Boris Johnson's message that he would "get Brexit done" became one of the main factors in the Labour Party's historic defeat in the 2019 election. Since then, Labour leaders have been careful to avoid the "B-word" at all costs, fearing that mentioning it would reawaken pro-Brexit sentiments in the electorate.
But it’s 2025, a completely different political reality. Labour is in its first year in government, after a spectacular 170-seat victory last year. A key element of its campaign was a promise to “reset” relations with the European Union and “deepen ties” with the continent – without going back on the single market, customs union or freedom of movement.
The world today is much more dangerous than it was a few years ago, which has brought the UK closer to its strategic allies. And for the British public, that ally is Europe. When asked by Ipsos, 47% of citizens rated Europe as Britain's most important partner, compared to 21% who mentioned the US and 15% the Commonwealth.
More significant is the perception that Brexit is not working. Half of the public (49%) believe that Brexit has negatively affected the UK, while only 23% think otherwise. These figures have not been above 30% since the summer of 2022.
Similarly, two-thirds of Labour voters in 2024 (67%) think Brexit was a mistake. Nearly a decade after the referendum, we have a government whose electoral support is no longer dependent on preserving the 2016 deal. So there is room for change.
But what change are voters willing to accept? It’s not so much about the technical details of trade agreements as it is about how people feel about the new relationship. According to Ipsos, the British public is quite pragmatic. Their top priority is improving trade relations with the EU to facilitate the movement of goods and services (32%). If the Starmer government achieves this objective with clear benefits for the economy, it would be a major achievement.
A strong security partnership is also a priority for citizens, especially at a time of renewed tensions on the continent. Furthermore, 26% want cooperation with the EU to combat illegal immigration and 21% to prevent crime and terrorism.
However, immigration remains at the heart of the debate. It ranks as the second most important issue for the country (34%) after the economy (39%). Two-thirds of the public (67%) think that the number of immigrants in the Kingdom is too high, making it a crucial issue for undecided voters and for retaining Labour's base.
Against the backdrop of an upcoming EU-UK summit and following the publication of the government's White Paper, there is a risk that any scheme for youth mobility will be perceived as a rollback of freedom of movement – a red line that Labour ruled out in its election manifesto.
However, Ipsos shows that the public would support membership in a pan-European customs area if it would allow free movement for young Europeans (49% in favour, 22% against). However, attitudes about the impact of European immigration are still divided.
There are also "red lines" such as fishing rights and euro membership, which mean that any new relationship with the EU must reflect concerns about national sovereignty.
A fresh start to relations with the EU could also help Labour reconnect with more progressive voters who have been disappointed by its performance so far. Just 38% of its voters are satisfied with the first 11 months of government, while 36% are disappointed. At a time when the debate over energy prices and cuts to social benefits is heating up, the government receives a modest rating – 5.6 out of 10.
Against this backdrop, restoring trust through strong relations with the EU could be a way to maintain the electoral base and avoid voters shifting towards the Greens or Liberal Democrats.
At the end of the day, this government will be judged on its management of the economy, the livelihood crisis and public services – but it cannot ignore the challenge of immigration and security. If it can forge a new relationship with Europe that works and strengthens the trade and security partnership, then Keir Starmer can begin to regain control of the political agenda that currently belongs to others./ Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "The New European"
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