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Shkruar nga Pamfleti
If Rio Tinto can exploit lithium with minimal damage to the environment, the rewards are significant. But the failure risks eroding Vucic's iron grip on power in Serbia and will leave the EU's critical raw materials policy looking, if not broken, certainly in tatters.
While the world was anxiously waiting to see if President Joe Biden would drop his candidacy, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was visiting Belgrade almost unnoticed. Unannounced and arranged on short notice, his meeting a few weeks ago with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic was nonetheless a celebration.
Accompanying Scholz were senior executives from Mercedes, Stellantis, mining company Rio Tinto and three electric vehicle battery manufacturers - not to mention Maroš Šefčovič, the EU commissioner responsible for critical raw materials strategy and the president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Together they welcomed the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the EU and Serbia to create a partnership in critical raw materials and the creation of a value chain for the production of batteries and EVs (Electric Vehicles).
This is a big deal, economically and politically. In the scramble for secure supplies of critical raw materials needed for the green transition, the EU has lagged behind the US and China. Serbia has one of the largest lithium deposits in Europe, enough for around 1 million EV batteries per year.
The lithium in Serbia's Jadar valley is not Europe's only source, but, unlike the Chinese and Americans, Europeans are either more concerned about the environmental impact of large-scale mining or are staunch Nimbiists, depending on your stance. Without more access to metals like lithium, the EU will neither meet its carbon reduction targets nor keep up with its competitors.
Scholz agreed to go to Belgrade only after Serbia reversed a 2022 decision to cancel a contract with Rio Tinto to exploit lithium located near the border with Bosnia and Herzegovina. The renewal of Rio Tinto's planning license comes two months after Vucic rejected a request by Chinese President Xi Jinping for access to the metal.
" China has had enough already ," Vucic is said to have said in a reference to Chinese control of a copper mine in Bor, eastern Serbia.
This is further evidence that while Vucic continues to enjoy close political relations with China and Russia, he is integrating his economy ever more tightly with Europe and the US.
The Jadar Valley decision follows Serbia's agreement to buy 12 Rafale jets from France in exchange for Russian MiGs and the revelation that Serbia is a major munitions supplier to Ukraine.
Several influential Western technology companies, such as Microsoft, Siemens and American electric truck maker Rivian, have made major investments in Belgrade, attracted by a cheap and skilled workforce.
Many observers perceive Serbia as a close ally of Russia and President Vladimir Putin. However, Vucic has long been the Janus of the Balkans, looking both east and west. With the lithium decision he is sticking his neck out. He faces stiff opposition to him from three very different groups.
Serbia's energetic environmental activists claim that the Jadar project will damage the local ecology. They have organized protests across Serbia and point to the damage caused by the Chinese-run copper mine. Rio Tinto and the EU claim that Jadar development will be subject to stricter environmental standards.
Florian Bieber, a political scientist at the University of Graz, warns that as a precondition for the lithium deal, the EU may ignore Vucic's dictatorial tendencies, including his tight control of the media and questionable electoral practices.
This feeds into the wider politics of the Western Balkans. Proponents of Kosovo and Bosnia have accused the EU of failing to respond to Serbia's alleged attempts to undermine their territorial integrity - a claim European diplomats have disputed.
But Vucic's policies have upset Moscow as well. Shortly before Scholz's trip, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko visited Belgrade. His meeting with Vucic was described by one insider as "cold".
According to this person: “ Grushko sat down and began reading a list of 23 complaints, including the Kremlin's fury over Belgrade's decision to supply Ukraine with ammunition. When Grushko got halfway through the list, Vucic stood up and announced that the meeting was over and left ."
Vucic is a past master in gesture politics. But it goes beyond that. He is taking a big risk and so is the EU. If Rio Tinto can exploit lithium with minimal damage to the environment, the rewards are significant. But failure will also erode Vucic's iron grip on power in Serbia and leave the EU's critical raw materials policy looking, if not broken, then certainly tattered./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "FinancailTimes" "
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