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The global economy is at risk of recession if the US-Israeli war with Iran continues and high energy prices persist, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.
In its World Economic Outlook report, the IMF said that in a worst-case scenario, where oil, gas and food prices rise and remain high this year and next, global growth could fall below 2% in 2026.
"This would mean an imminent global recession, which has only happened four times since 1980 ," she said, most recently during the Covid pandemic.
Energy prices have risen sharply since the war began more than six weeks ago, after the key shipping route of the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed and peace talks between the US and Iran failed.
"Once again, the global economy is threatened to be thrown off course - this time by the outbreak of war in the Middle East in late February 2026 ," the IMF said.
According to the report, the most severe conditions that could lead to a global slowdown would include oil prices averaging $110 a barrel this year and $125 in 2027. Based on these assumptions, the IMF said inflation could reach as high as 6% next year. That could force central banks to raise interest rates to slow the pace of price increases.
The price of oil rose to nearly $120 during the conflict with Iran, but has since fallen again, and on Tuesday, a barrel of crude was worth $98.85. Moreover, the IMF stressed that the risk of recession would only increase if severe conditions persisted for two years.
According to the report, if the conflict is resolved within the next few weeks and if energy production and exports from the Middle East begin to normalize by the middle of this year, global growth will slow to 3.1% for 2026.
That's below a previous forecast of 3.3%. It also left its forecast for global growth next year unchanged at 3.2%.
According to IMF forecasts, oil-exporting countries in the Persian Gulf are likely to experience a significant slowdown in economic growth or even a contraction this year.
He estimates that Iran's economy will shrink by 6.1% this year. However, he predicts a recovery of 3.2% in 2027, provided the war ends in the coming weeks.
Several countries such as Qatar, a major supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG), have been targeted with missiles and drones by Iran.
Qatar's Ras Laffan refinery, the world's largest LNG refinery, has been hit by an attack and is not expected to be fully operational for some time.
The IMF predicts that Qatar's economy will shrink by 8.6% in 2026, before recovering with growth of 8.6% the following year.
A country's economic resilience will depend on a number of factors, the IMF said, including damage to energy infrastructure, dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and the availability of alternative export routes.
Saudi Arabia, for example, has its East-West pipeline that runs from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and can pump up to 7 million barrels of oil per day.
Saudi Arabia's growth will slow in 2026, but the economy is expected to expand by 3.1% and is forecast to grow by 4.5% next year.
The IMF said most Middle Eastern oil exporters are forecast to see growth next year "based on the assumption that energy production and transportation normalize over the coming months."
But it warned that this assumption "may need to be revised if the duration of the conflict is prolonged and the extent of the damage suffered is reassessed."
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