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Rajoni dhe Bota2026-02-28 13:21:00

Endgame for the Islamic Republic?

Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Endgame for the Islamic Republic?
In Tehran, many people are trying to leave the capital

Dozens of airstrikes are rocking the country. Donald Trump apparently wants to bring about regime change. Iran is responding with attacks across the region. The Middle East is on fire…

Black clouds of smoke rose above Tehran early Saturday morning: Israel had bombed the Iranian capital for the second time in eight months. Shortly after the Israeli strikes, US President Donald Trump also confirmed "large-scale military operations" by the US in Iran. The major war in the Middle East, which observers had been predicting for weeks, broke out over the weekend.

According to media reports, the first attacks targeted an area in Tehran that includes the presidential palace and the headquarters of the National Security Council. Explosions were also reported in the cities of Qom and Isfahan. Donald Trump announced plans to destroy the Iranian fleet and "crush" Iran's missile industry. The Israeli military said that "dozens of military targets" in Iran were bombed. Unconfirmed media reports indicated that President Masoud Peseshkian and Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were also among the targets.

After the bombings, Tehran threatened a "devastating response" and shortly afterwards fired missiles at Israel.

Endgame for the Islamic Republic?

The alarm was raised in Tel Aviv, one of the Israeli cities targeted by Tehran.

But Iran's retaliation goes further. Bahrain confirmed a missile attack on its territory. According to videos and media reports, smoke rose near a US naval base in the Gulf state. In addition, Qatar and Jordan claim to have intercepted several Iranian missiles, while eyewitnesses in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait report hearing explosions.

Just two days ago, Iranian and American representatives had been negotiating Iran's nuclear program in Geneva. On Friday, Donald Trump said he was "not happy" with the talks. According to media reports, American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were disappointed with Iran's offer.

However, the war that has now begun is about much more than the nuclear program. In a video message, the US president addressed the people of Iran directly: "take control of your government as soon as we are done." Freedom for the Iranian people is within reach, Trump said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also implied that regime change should follow the attacks: "Our joint action will create the conditions for the courageous Iranian people to take their fate into their own hands."

This time, it seems everything is at stake: the Islamic Republic itself is the target.

Whether the regime can be overthrown is doubtful. "Bringing about regime change through airstrikes alone is extremely difficult," Rouzbeh Parsi says in an interview.

According to the Iranian historian from Lund University, armed groups on the ground will also have to join forces in the fight against the government apparatus. "So far, we don't know if such groups exist in Iran."

Parsi also suspects that targeted killings could force the regime to capitulate. "The Islamic Republic is a sprawling system built on excess, killing one person will not cause panic and thousands will defect."

These Iranian cities have been bombed so far

Endgame for the Islamic Republic?

However, Tehran's theocratic leadership appears to interpret the attacks as an existential threat - and is responding in all directions. By attacking not only Israel but also US bases in allied Arab states, Iran is expanding the war to include the entire Middle East. "In this way, Iran is increasing the pressure on America's allies in the region, who can tell the US that the war is not worth it," says Rouzbeh Parsi. "Because these countries want to avoid chaos on their doorstep at all costs."

Iran could retaliate in other ways as well. For example, Tehran could close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important trade routes. The weakened network of Islamist militias in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen is also poised to act. According to media reports, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have already decided to resume their attacks on shipping corridors in the Red Sea.

Apparently, the US and Israel have already prepared for this scenario. On Saturday, explosions were reported south of the Iraqi capital, Baghdad. The area under attack has been used for years by Kataib Hezbollah, the most powerful Iraqi militia, which is allied with Iran. In recent days, the Israeli Air Force has also intensified its attacks on suspected Hezbollah positions in Lebanon.

During the recent 12-day war with Israel, signals came from Tehran that these groups must be restrained in order to survive the consequences. "This strategy assumes that there will still be a regime with which relations can be established after the war," says Rouzbeh Parsi. "It is now unclear whether the Islamic Republic will survive all this." The terrible fire has already reached the Middle East. The coming days will show how far the flames will spread. / Pamphlet /

irani sulme lindja e mesme

1 Komente

  1. K
    Keli

    Mbaje mend këtë titull o Pamfleti! Se mos është fundi i lojës për Amerikën?? Prit se do kesh kohë të kuptosh ... Amerika është e pamposhtur vetëm në "American soil", ngado në Botë ,në çdo luftë ka nisur e para por në fund ka ikur si qen i rrahur... Ja do të shohësh.

    Lini një Përgjigje