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India's new strategy now relies on a measured approach: avoiding public clashes with Trump and praising his diplomatic efforts in Ukraine and Gaza. At the same time, India is trying to engage other parts of the American system, such as Congress and diaspora networks, to rebalance the relationship...
At the beginning of each year, our columnists predict the challenges ahead. For 2026, they analyzed the lessons from the first year of Donald Trump's second term, where his policies - based on harsh tariffs and overhauling alliances - have revolutionized international relations. Even as the environment remains unpredictable, global leaders are learning to navigate this new era of volatility. Here are six key lessons that will shape world politics.
1. For China: Calibrated pressure and patience
Beijing is emerging from 2025 largely unscathed by Trump’s ultimatums. The Chinese leadership has learned that while Trump is more reckless in his actions than in his first term, his maximalist threats are often tempered by market pressures or his personal desire to reach a “deal” that he can sell as a political victory.
In response, China has successfully tested the fragility of U.S. supply chains by restricting exports of critical minerals. This specific pressure has forced the administration to make concessions, as was the case with allowing shipments of Nvidia chips, proving that calibrated retaliation works better than broad economic counterattacks.
In 2026, Beijing will exploit Trump's transactional nature to secure tariff relief in exchange for symbolic concessions. The long-term strategy remains to strengthen ties with Europe and Asia to mitigate isolation from the US, expecting Washington's policies to lose their power over time.
2. For India: Diversification and pragmatism
Narendra Modi welcomed Trump's return with enthusiasm, but was disappointed when India was hit with tariffs of up to 50 percent. The move highlighted the strength of the MAGA movement, which did not hesitate to hit strategic partners. New Delhi realized that personal friendship between leaders is not enough to protect economic interests.
India’s new strategy now relies on a measured approach: avoiding public clashes with Trump and praising his diplomatic efforts in Ukraine and Gaza. At the same time, India is trying to engage other parts of the American system, such as Congress and diaspora networks, to rebalance the relationship.
The key lesson for India in 2026 is not to put all its eggs in the American basket. New Delhi is accelerating trade deals with Europe and easing tensions with China, revealing that resistance to Washington's pressure is paying off.
increases their authority both domestically and on the international stage.
3. For the Allies: The "Hedgehog" Strategy
Vulnerable countries like Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Baltic states have concluded that the old security guarantees from the US are now unsustainable. Survival in the Order
The new one depends on transforming these countries into "hedgehogs," nations that are very costly and difficult to attack militarily.
Ukraine has shifted from seeking NATO membership to pragmatically seeking a ceasefire that allows it to rebuild its defense capabilities. This shift reflects an acceptance that Washington’s commitment to Europe is now conditional and largely dependent on the whims of the current president.
In the Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan and Japan are following the same path by significantly increasing their military budgets. In the face of Trump's strategic ambiguity, these countries are investing in the production of anti-ship missiles and distributed defense systems.
4. For CEOs: U.S. Investment Uncertainty and Looking at Alternatives
The business world was rocked in 2025 when immigration agents detained hundreds of Hyundai and LG employees in Georgia. The incident showed that even when foreign companies try to invest billions in the US to please the administration, they can be punished by strict visa rules and hostile bureaucracy.
For company executives, it’s clear that manufacturing within America brings new risks. Complex supply chains are hit by multiple tariffs on imported parts, making long-term planning nearly impossible in an environment where policies change suddenly.
In 2026, many corporations are expected to turn their eyes to alternative destinations such as Vietnam or Canada. Although the US remains an attractive market, structural uncertainty is forcing CEOs to diversify investments away from a country that is becoming increasingly unpredictable in which to do business.
5. For European countries: Keep calm and move forward
European leaders have managed to avoid the Trump “anxiety syndrome” by adopting a more pragmatic approach. Instead of wasting time opposing the philosophy of tariffs, they accepted a certain level of tariffs (15 percent) and avoided hasty retaliation that would harm their consumers.
Unity has been Brussels' main weapon. By preventing individual governments from
rushing to Washington for bilateral deals, the EU has retained its collective negotiating power. This “self-help” strategy is proving more effective than attempts to convince Trump to change his beliefs.
The challenges of 2026 will test this resilience, especially with frozen Russian funds and US pressure on digital regulations. Europe is expected to follow its own path, focusing on internal unity as the only shield against Trump's attempts to divide the bloc during summits like the G-20.
6. For Israel: Reconsidering Aid
Trump's approach to the Middle East has been full of surprises, from attacks on Iran to meetings with controversial Syrian figures. For Israel, the message is clear: there is no more "blank check" from Washington. Trump has made it clear that he considers the $4 billion in annual aid a high cost for the United States.
The White House is not following a strict “America First” doctrine, but is being guided more by the president’s transactional instincts. This means that military aid could be conditioned or cut off if Israel does not offer something meaningful in return, despite traditional lobbying in Washington.
In 2026, Israel will have to be more creative to maintain American support. Proposals to gradually cut aid in exchange for investment are being discussed, as Trump believes the US does not get enough in return for the stability it guarantees. Now it is Israel’s turn to “pay” for the partnership. /Adapted from “Foreign Policy”/
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